In the U.S. stock market, options are currently pricing in only about 0.8% volatility for the day after the election. Hartnett called for a "Democratic sweep leading to a 10%+ drop in U.S. stocks" back in early September, when only 23% of fund managers predicted a Democratic sweep. Now, prediction markets have priced in a two-thirds probability of a Democratic sweep. Current odds: -- Democratic sweep: Already largely priced in; the outcome becoming reality reduces uncertainty instead. -- Split government (Democratic and Republican): 27% -- Republican sweep: A 9% tail risk—the real unpriced wildcard. Between the election on November 3 and the results being confirmed by November 5, implied volatility from midterm election odds will rise, and crypto market volatility will rise accordingly. Suppose—just suppose—the Republicans manage to retain the Senate: the market might see a rebound driven by repricing, but its sustainability would likely be limited, given it’s nearing year-end and the Fed still has one more rate hike scheduled for December.