🚨 SoSoValue Flash: Escalating Protests in France Weigh on European Bonds, Oil Nears $110, Anthropic Plans S-1 Filing on October 26, AI Earnings Week Begins 💥 Key Developments: On the macro and geopolitical front, large-scale anti-government protests in France are spilling over into European financial markets. France’s CAC 40 index fell approximately -1.5%, while the 10-year French government bond (OAT) yield rose 13 bps to 4.91%. The OAT-Bund spread widened to 146 bps. Concerns are mounting over spillover effects to other European peripheral bond markets, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also rising to around 5.14–5.15%. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. Over the past 48 hours, six clashes have occurred between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia, pushing Brent crude oil up 3.80% to $109.95 per barrel—just shy of the $110 mark. In China, Q3 GDP growth came in at +4.5% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations. However, September economic indicators showed signs of weakness: - Fixed asset investment: -9.69% - Real estate investment: -27.19% The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reset its policy rate benchmark to the overnight reverse repo rate (1.25%) to support liquidity. In Tech & Crypto, IPOs of AI firms and earnings reports from major tech companies are drawing attention. Anthropic plans to file its S-1 (IPO registration statement) on October 26, with a roadshow scheduled to begin on November 9 and an IPO target in mid-November. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, OpenAI is also rushing to secure funding from government-backed funds ahead of Anthropic’s IPO. This week features a concentrated slate of key AI-related events: - NVIDIA: GTC Berlin opens Wednesday - Tesla ($TSLA): Q3 earnings release - Meta ($META): Q3 earnings release Both Tesla and Meta are scheduled to release earnings after the close of U.S. market trading. The crypto market continues to lack clear direction: - $BTC: ~$82,000 - $ETH: ~$2,406 Weekly Spot ETF Flows: - BTC ETF: Net outflow of $228 million - ETH ETF: Net outflow of $320 million Meanwhile, CME BTC futures premium has recovered to +0.39%. Stablecoin Supply: - USDC: $72.59 billion - USDT: $183.43 billion 🔍 Shifts in Market Logic: 1️⃣ French fiscal risks and oil nearing $110 exert upward pressure on long-term yields Financial market concerns stemming from political and fiscal instability in France are spreading across European bond markets, while rising oil prices due to escalating Middle East tensions are reinforcing inflation fears. As a result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated near 5.15%. However, the VIX index has declined to 18.44. The market appears to be adjusting asset prices in response to macroeconomic shifts rather than reacting with panic-driven selling. 2️⃣ AI market enters a “profitability validation phase” driven by major tech earnings and Anthropic’s S-1 filing Until now, AI market growth has been primarily driven by massive capital expenditures (CapEx) on GPUs and data centers. The focus is now shifting toward whether enterprise AI software can generate actual revenue—i.e., demonstrating ROI (return on investment). NVIDIA’s GTC Berlin, Meta and Tesla’s earnings reports, and Anthropic’s S-1 filing will serve as critical indicators of this profitability. 3️⃣ Crypto continues to adjust under high interest rates; futures market shows modest signs of recovery Persistent high U.S. Treasury yields remain a headwind for crypto markets, with continued outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs. However, the CME BTC futures premium has rebounded to +0.39%. USDT supply levels continue to provide underlying market support, signaling modest improvement in derivative markets. 📊 SoDEX Key Assets Watchlist: Core: $USTECH-100 · $CL · $XAUt · $BTC AI Earnings Week & Tech Focus: $NVDA · $TSLA · $META · $MSFT · $AMD