🚨 THE S&P DID EXACTLY WHAT I WARNED ABOUT. 7,844 REJECTED. That is the second bull trap this year. 1/ August at 7,810 2/ October at 7,845. Every push to a new high has slipped straight back into the range. Now the part almost nobody is pricing. 84% of S&P 500 components are already in correction territory. The index held up this long because a handful of names carried it. Those are the ones selling now. The rate path is why I am watching lower. Markets entered 2026 pricing three cuts. The Fed hiked in September instead, its first increase in three years. CPI came in at 3.7%. PPI jumped 6.3%. December is priced at an 80% chance of another hike, and traders have started pricing two, or a half point at once. My roadmap: Two hikes total: 7,300 is my first bottoming zone. That is 5% below here. Three or more: 6,850. That is 11% below here. A 450 point gap, decided entirely by the Fed. Goldman's year-end target is 8,000. Yardeni is at 8,250. Neither of them tells you where buyers actually defend. My entry gets posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on.