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About one or two quarters to go before US and French bond markets seize up based on best Grok guesstimates: "America: 6%, or the first 10-year auction that tails hard and leaves the dealers holding it, whichever comes first, and on the recent pace that is this winter rather than the full roll. France: the spread, not the yield, and the clock is the budget and the election, inside the next two quarters. The cap follows the failed sale. It does not arrive on a chart."

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