Is the altcoin season coming? The ISM has just reached the activation level seen in the two previous crypto bull cycles. 2017: ISM surpassed 55 (peaking at 60.8); altcoins exploded +15,000%, led by Ethereum’s surge from $8 to $1,400. 2021: ISM hit its highest level since 1983 at 64.7; crypto market cap crossed $1 trillion for the first time in history. 2025: ISM averaged 48.9. Altcoins remained dead despite BTC and ETH reaching all-time highs. 2026: ISM finally held above 54 for the first time in two years, creating liquidity conditions for the next bull cycle. An ISM above 50 means factory output is expanding. Since early 2026, ISM has consistently remained above this level, signaling that businesses are profitable and real economic activity is accelerating. When factory growth stabilizes or climbs toward 60, it triggers a surge in bank liquidity. Once traditional markets absorb all they can, this excess capital flows directly into high-risk, high-reward assets like crypto. This is precisely what fueled the parabolic rallies of 2017 and 2021. By contrast, in 2025, ISM averaged 48.9—below the threshold. Although strong ETF inflows pushed BTC and ETH to record highs, broader economic stagnation meant no liquidity reached altcoins. Today’s strong ISM report won’t pump altcoins overnight—but if this economic momentum continues to build, it will lay the foundation for another such bull cycle.