
I think the historical record makes the Bitcoin conclusion harder to defend than the chart suggests. In March 2020, Bitcoin lost more than a third of its value in roughly 12 hours because genuine liquidity stress does not discriminate. Investors sell what they can sell. So if MOVE, the dollar, long yields and credit are all genuinely signaling systemic tightening, the cleaner historical precedent is that BTC gets hit during the initial liquidation and only begins to outperform once policymakers restore liquidity. Where I disagree more strongly is with the methodology. Putting four differently scaled, partly inverted series on one chart and noting that they sometimes turn around the same periods does not establish a 5 year causal cycle. It may illustrate correlation but correlation is not a mechanism. Without a clearly defined transmission channel, a falsifiable timing rule and consistent behavior across prior episodes, the chart is visually persuasive but analytically incomplete.
