
The issue is not interest rates—it’s why interest rates have remained so high. Last week, in my view, the real story wasn’t on the stock exchanges but in the bond market. U.S. 10-year yields rose above 5%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. Yet global equity markets managed to stay just a few points below their peaks. So for now, we’re seeing a period not of risk-off sentiment, but of rising risk pricing. I’m paying particular attention to oil. One day there’s news of negotiations between Iran and the U.S.; the next day, expectations are dashed—and Brent crude moves back above $100. The U.S. has now responded to Iran’s plan, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the sequencing of steps each side will take remains the core point of disagreement. I believe the equation is simple: If oil stays high, inflation stays high; if inflation stays high, bond yields stay high; and if yields stay high, the dollar can remain strong. One link in this chain must break. On the U.S.-China front, no major breakthrough emerged from the Trump-Xi meeting; the trade truce was extended by only two months. Therefore, I don’t believe it’s sufficient to focus solely on the $BTC or Nasdaq charts in the coming period. My radar is focused on the chain: US10Y → DXY → OIL → VIX. The market isn’t panicked yet. What I’m truly curious about is how much longer it can withstand such elevated financing costs without becoming fearful.
