
Just FYI, the Updated Aug 26, 2026 date on the charts does not mean the velocity reading includes July or August activity. The latest observation is Q2 2026 at 1.415, covering April through June. That means the flattening was already visible by the end of June, before the September Fed hike, the newest diesel surge and most of the deterioration developing through Q3. Q3 will cover July through September, but the World Cup continuing into July likely gave nominal GDP a temporary lift through tourism, hotels, restaurants, transportation and entertainment spending. So if Q3 velocity still barely rises or turns lower despite that one time support, the signal becomes more important. Q4 should then be an even cleaner test once that boost disappears.




