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Last week was significant for markets. The Fed raised interest rates, bond yields rose, and the dollar strengthened—but we did not see a sharp sell-off in risk assets as might have been expected. This week, however, the real question begins: Will money exit the market entirely, or will it simply shift positions? High interest rates and a strong dollar naturally make liquidity more selective. On one side, bonds offering safe returns; on the other, equity markets, gold, and crypto still striving to hold their ground. In Turkey, this has been compounded by FT’s spotlight on the country’s fund crisis. It’s too early to say whether this will evolve into a systemic issue, but for foreign capital viewing Turkey from afar, the concept of “trust” has undoubtedly become more important. I see a greater likelihood for the remainder of the year not in a major crash, but in a more selective movement of capital, punctuated by occasional sharp transitions. Therefore, it’s not enough to track prices alone—you must also monitor the direction of the dollar, bond yields, and liquidity. Because sometimes, it’s not price that leads the market’s direction—but where the money is going.

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