Bitcoin has formed another Golden Cross. Two lines intersect: the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average. A bullish trend signal? Or not? Yes, historically, this has often preceded massive rallies—like in October 2015, which I thoroughly rode at the time. Or in 2023… also a great ride. A massive rally. What often gets overlooked in the euphoria: February 2020: Golden Cross around $10,000. Just weeks later, the price had more than halved. Those who bought in February lost; those who waited, like me, for the 50% drop, won. September 2021: Golden Cross. Then came the 2022 bear market. Those who sold in 2021, like me, won. Those who held onto their positions lost. Same signal. Very different outcomes. The key point: Moving averages react to past prices. When they cross, part of the move has already happened. What truly matters is what happens going forward—not what’s already behind us. So, what Bitcoin price would convince you this time that the Golden Cross is truly a bullish signal? And what price would tell you it was a false signal?