A Fed hike won’t fix it. The 10-year yield = expected short-term rates (Fed Funds Rate, already priced in) + inflation expectations (still elevated) + term premium. A hike could theoretically compress the inflation component of the term premium, but the fiscal and demand-driven components would remain. If selling by official holders and heavy supply persist, 10-year yields could remain under pressure — or move even higher — regardless of a single Fed meeting. That’s why the bond selloff will continue, no matter what the Fed does.
