
According to Moody’s Analytics, the top 10% of American earners now generate nearly half of all consumer spending in the United States. This extreme concentration helps explain why aggregate data continue to show surprisingly resilient demand, even as a much larger portion of the population faces mounting pressure. In my view, the key point is that this top decile is also the segment most exposed to fluctuations in stocks, funds, real estate, and other assets. As long as these assets continue to appreciate, perceived wealth rises, along with the willingness to spend. Seeing one’s wealth grow over time instills greater confidence to buy a home, travel, upgrade a car, or simply spend more. And this is where the problem arises. A sharp market correction would drastically reduce the “wealth effect.” Those who can still afford such expenditures might simply choose to delay them, becoming more cautious as they suddenly feel “less wealthy.” If nearly half of consumer spending depends on this group, a sudden drop in asset values risks rapidly transmitting to the real economy. The rest of the population is unlikely to compensate, as they are already heavily burdened by the cost of living, increasingly restricted access to credit, and a slowing labor market. This is also why a brutal correction on Wall Street today would not merely be a problem for investors—it could quickly become a problem for the entire U.S. economy. An American economy increasingly dependent on the wealthy—and, above all, on their continued perception of wealth.




