The Fed’s most divided meeting in years is now on the record. The market spent the day pricing the opposite. 📰 TLDR: The minutes showed a hike case circulating well past the three dissenters. September odds sit near 30 percent regardless. ❗️ What the minutes actually said: · A 9 to 3 vote to hold, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan each wanting a quarter point increase, and no governors joining them · The hawkish view extended past those three. Participants said tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline, and some thought financial conditions might not be tight enough · Warsh also opened a discussion about cutting the Fed’s calendar from eight meetings a year to six. No decision, and the rest of 2026 runs as scheduled 🏆 Where that leaves the numbers: · The two year Treasury yield at 4.16, lower on the day · Odds of a September increase near 30 percent, down sharply from a month ago · High yield spreads at 2.75, still well under the 3.00 line that matters · The S&P at 7,707, a few points above the floor I set Sunday The gap is the calendar. These minutes describe a meeting that ended three weeks ago, and both consumer and producer price data have come in softer since. The committee’s hawks were arguing about an inflation picture the data has already moved past. The condition I registered Sunday, stated once: this read stays constructive while high yield spreads hold under 3.00 and the two year ends the week under 4.35. Both intact tonight. Friday grades it either way. A hawkish record of a meeting its own data outran.