The most ironic part of this trade isn’t that he was wrong about the bearish outlook—it’s that even if BTC does drop in the future, he’ll no longer be around to see it. With a $2.92 million principal backing a $125 million notional short position, his leverage exposure was approximately 43x. As the price rebounded from $63,991 to $69,500—a move of less than 9% in the opposite direction—the account lost all room for recovery. I’m also waiting for a bearish trend, but expecting a drop in September doesn’t mean I should max out my position now. For trend trades, first define your entry, exit, and maximum loss—then consider your target. You can always correct a wrong direction, but if you get the position size wrong, you lose even the chance to wait for the direction to play out.