3.4% Is Wednesday’s CPI Forecast—Not Wednesday’s CPI

The market is already trading a number that has not been released yet.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish July CPI on August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Reuters currently expect headline inflation around 3.4% year over year and core inflation around 2.5%. Those are consensus forecasts, not official data.

For this event, I would use KIA before release rather than after the candle has already moved.

My research prompt would create three scenarios:

Below consensus: what changes in Fed expectations?

Near consensus: which underlying components matter most?

Above consensus: which assets are most exposed to renewed tightening fears?

KIA supports online search and Deep Research, so it can organise expectations, previous inflation data and current macro commentary into one pre-event checklist. I would still use BLS as the final source for the actual number once it drops.

The weak July jobs report reduced confidence in further tightening. Hot inflation could challenge that repricing almost immediately.

Not Financial Advice.

Which CPI surprise would create more volatility now: 3.1% or 3.7%?