Is the bitcoin:native cycle bottom in? I can't tell you that. But I have been accumulating in the range Bitcoin is in now. Bitcoin was rejected at the 200 day moving average (dotted orange line) in mid May and has since fallen below True Mean Price, shown in blue. That's what the average Bitcoin was last bought for, with coins that haven't moved in years taken out. It's around 75.8k, so anything under that is a discount to what the current market has paid. Bitcoin then fell to the 200 week MA (dotted purple line). Past cycle lows have formed around it, and we are currently sitting on it at 63.7k. The solid purple line is the Realised Price. This is the same as the True Mean but it counts every coin (including lost and dormant ones). It's around 52.7k and that's the lower end of the discount for me. Every previous cycle went below the Realised Price, but nothing says this one has to. The way I think about this range is as a gradient, where the deeper we go the more aggressive I accumulate Bitcoin. That is because there is risk and uncertainty baked into this. Bitcoin is still a young asset and this is only the fifth major macro bear market bottom, which is not enough to be precise about where this ends. I would rather be roughly right across a range than exact at one number. The uncertainty runs both ways though. The June/July low could turn out to be the macro bottom of this cycle. If that is what happened, anyone holding out for a lower number misses the range. This is all probabilistic. There are no guarantees and Bitcoin doesn't care what you or I think. I have said my plan. What's yours?