CryptoQuant Analyst Projects BTC Range-Bound Between $57,700–$67,000 in August
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is expected to remain in a consolidation phase throughout August, having retraced approximately 50% from its October 2025 cycle high of $126,200. The report assigns a 55% probability of BTC trading between $57,700 and $67,000, with a potential month-end close between $60,000 and $64,000. The bearish scenario, carrying a 30% probability, involves a break below $57,700 with further testing of the on-chain realized price near $52,800. The bullish scenario, with only a 15% probability, requires sustained holding above $67,000 accompanied by continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, declining US Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar, potentially targeting a price range of $71,000 to $74,000. Current valuations near the on-chain cost zone, along with ongoing net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, provide market support. However, the high-interest-rate environment, elevated US Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar continue to constrain upside potential for risk assets. The report also highlights the need to monitor key macroeconomic events in August, including US non-farm payrolls, CPI data, and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, for their potential impact on market liquidity.
