What to Expect from SpaceX's First Earnings After Going Public: Starlink, AI & Valuation
SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company today, and the numbers Wall Street cares about are more than just a profit or loss line.
Trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, the company raised $85.7 billion, selling its stock at $135 per share in June 2026—making it the largest IPO in history. They surged to $225.64 in the first week and dropped over 45% to below the IPO price altogether in late July.
The three business segments are set to be under scrutiny—Space, Connectivity, and AI. The AI unit, which was known as xAI, was absorbed by SpaceX in February 2026 and has generated $818 million in revenue in the first quarter alone.
Starlink is still the money earner of the company. For the year leading up to March 31, 2026, the service had 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries, representing a year-over-year growth of 105% and total revenue of $11.4 billion in 2025.
But average revenue per user (ARPU) has been declining, from about $99 per month in 2023 to about $66 in the latest quarter.
The only uncertainty is profitability. On $4.7 billion of revenues, SpaceX recorded a $4.9 billion net loss for 2025, and another $4.28 billion in losses in the first quarter of 2026.
The Wall Street average expectation is a total of $6.9 billion in Q2 revenue, although the figures range from a loss of $1.26 to a profit of $0.33 in earnings per share.
Timing adds pressure. The announcement coincides with a big lock-up that ends Aug. 6, after which approximately 911 million shares held by insiders will hit the market, double the number of shares currently held by the public.
SPCX is currently valued around 49x of its expected revenues, which means that there is little space for a poor revenue performance.
The outcome of this report may be a bell curve example for the remainder of the year for other infrastructure valuations related to AI.
This is not financial advice.
Would you buy into a high-growth story like this before profitability is proven, or wait for the numbers to catch up to the valuation?
