$BTC at $64,800—what are you waiting for?
First glance: the rate-hike “sword” hangs overhead, and large capital is hesitating
After rebounding from 58,000 to 66,700 in July, it fell again. It’s currently limping along in the 63,000–67,000 range. +1.4% daily, -1.9% weekly, +7.7% monthly. The price is below the 50-day EMA, far under the 200-day MA at 71,000. With macro pressure on top, weak demand, and unclear direction, everyone is waiting for a clear signal.
First thing: Is FOMC not hiking a good thing? Don’t be naive
On July 29, the Fed held rates steady by a 9–3 vote. Pausing hikes is indeed good news, but three regional Fed presidents publicly opposed it and called for a 25bp hike.
Since “Waller” took office, the emphasis on fighting inflation has only increased. The June dot plot already revised year-end rate expectations upward. The market says, “A pause is bullish,” but deep down it knows: the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting is not small.
After the announcement, BTC surged briefly and then quickly stabilized—meanwhile, crude oil prices are still rising, and inflation could return at any time.
Second thing: ETF flows are running—this is the most honest signal
In June, net outflows from ETFs were about $4.0–$4.5 billion, setting a record. There was a brief inflow in mid-July, but from July 23–28 it flipped back to continuous net outflows of several hundred million. Since 2026, cumulative net outflows are roughly $5.0–$6.0 billion.
Third thing: A technical signal has appeared that must be watched closely
On the daily timeframe, after the July rebound to 66.7k, it immediately pulled back—this directly confirms that any rebound below the 200-day MA (71k) has just been a dead-cat bounce. RSI is below 50, trading volume is continuously shrinking, and MACD is neutral-to-weak.
Even more unsettling: the choppy consolidation between 63k–67k has lasted nearly a month. High-level consolidation + declining volume is often a precursor to a trend choice.
Key levels
Resistance: 65,000–65,200 → 65,500–66,700 → 68,000–68,500
Support: 64,300–64,500 → 63,500–63,800 → 62,000–62,500 → 60,000
For short-term traders:
Pull back to 64,300–64,500 for a small long position; stop loss below 63,000; target 65,500–66,700. If price rebounds into 65,500–66,700 and gets rejected, consider a small short; stop loss above 67,000; target 64,500–63,500.
For swing traders:
If price holds above 66,700 on rising volume and then retests for confirmation, chase longs targeting 68,000+. If it effectively breaks below 63,500 with volume, follow the short toward 62,000–60,000.
For long-term believers:
DCA in batches below 60,000. 2026 is the first year ETFs clearly face a bearish pressure test—though the long-term narrative hasn’t broken, short-term suffering is hard to avoid.
