
My guess: soon 40-50% of Americans will receive some form of recurring public income, dividend or subsidy. That sounds extreme until you look at the starting point. Around 22% of Americans already receive Social Security or SSI. Millions more receive veterans' benefits, disability payments, caregiver support and other transfers. During COVID, stimulus payments reached roughly 50% of the population. Or some native Americans/Canadians already receive payments from big industries/government to use their land. Thanks to oil, around 90% of Kuwait citizens receive meaningful government-funded support (easy high salary jobs, pensions, housing etc). AI and robotics will reduce the amount of human labour needed across administration, customer service, logistics, engineering and large parts of the service economy. At some point, creating a job for the marginal worker may cost more than sending them a monthly payment. The money could come from taxes on data centres, energy production, autonomous factories, software profits and sovereign ownership of AI infrastructure. Citizens would gradually become economic shareholders in the jurisdictions where they live. This future may be materially richer and psychologically worse. Work provides status, structure, purpose and community. A large group of people will still build companies, conduct research, create art and compete for ownership/power/higher equity but not base salary. A much larger group may choose, or be pushed toward, staying home with guaranteed income, subsidized housing, healthcare, food and unlimited entertainment. That choice will often be rational. The grind will become harder, machines will outperform more people, and the basic package will become comfortable enough to accept. Economic growth has repeatedly turned scarce goods into baseline services. Clean water, electricity, communication and information all followed that path. Income may follow too.
