China does not publish transparent data on its oil inventories, so all estimates are based on models. The EIA estimated China’s combined strategic and commercial oil inventories at approximately 1.54 billion barrels in the first quarter of 2026. Government reserves were estimated at roughly 360 million barrels, while commercial inventories were estimated at around 1 billion barrels. That means the claim that China has already used up half of its reserves does not follow from the available data. Moreover, Reuters, citing analysts, reported that despite the sharp decline in imports and refinery processing, China may have continued building some of its inventories during the first half of 2026. This is a very important detail. If the economy continues consuming fuel while oil imports fall sharply, the difference has to come from somewhere. Possible sources include: Oil held in refinery and commercial inventories. Government strategic reserves. Domestic oil production. Lower refinery processing. Weak domestic demand. Substitution of oil with coal, natural gas and electricity in certain sectors. Most likely, all six factors are currently playing a role simultaneously. But the claim that China has already “burned through half of its reserves” has not been proven. The more likely scenario is that China reduced imports, cut refinery processing, used some commercial inventories, continued maintaining its strategic reserves and waited for more favorable market conditions.