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June CPI came in at 3.5% (below expectations of 3.8%), while Core CPI dropped to 2.6% (below 2.8% expected). Month-over-month CPI even fell -0.4%, the biggest drop since May 2020. US stock futures are surging on the news. This is shifting the narrative quickly. Lower-than-expected inflation is raising hopes for earlier or more aggressive Fed rate cuts, which is weakening the Dollar and easing pressure on risk assets in the short term. If it sticks, this could be a meaningful catalyst for gold. A softer inflation path reduces the “higher for longer” pressure that’s been weighing on the metal. Still, the market is volatile and one print doesn’t change the entire picture. But this is the kind of data that can flip sentiment fast.

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