👀my read on 2026 H2 and how i'm positioned: the base case for the second half is stepwise deleveraging from stretched highs, not an ai bubble collapse, but not a continuation of ai euphoria either. the whole thing rests on one condition: credit stays intact. HY OAS is still low. the private credit behind the ai buildout is the real landmine, but it hasn't turned into a systemic credit event yet. as long as that holds, ai can grind at the top and bleed leverage on repeat. what's got me leaning this way: > leverage is still high. margin debt is at record highs, and SOXL still trades at a premium into selloffs. > hawkish backdrop. this market already priced in cuts. so no cut IS the bad news. higher for longer welds the valuation ceiling shut. > the fed got less legible. Warsh scrapped the rate roadmap, so every data print swings harder and the post event vol crush fades. > geopolitical tail is back. hormuz and oil are re-entering the pricing, with crude bouncing off the lows. net: an asymmetric tape. good news gets muted and bad news gets amplified. two paths from here. i lean the FIRST. 1. grind lower in steps — base case leverage never fully clears. small bounces, lower highs each time. jul-aug bleeds. late aug, the jackson hole + NVDA window could trigger a short bounce. sep into early nov, seasonality stacks on top of more deleveraging. post election early nov probably bounces, but the size depends on two things: did leverage actually clear, and did the fed actually pivot. 2. flush then new highs — the optimistic long shot 2024-H2 crypto style. brutal setup though. both have to happen: a loud capitulation flush in jul-aug that wipes leverage clean, AND macro turning good with the fed going dovish. line those up with post election seasonality and year-end highs are back on the table. but now the first condition isn't close yet. the tail: if private credit, ai data center financing, and HY OAS all start bleeding in one direction, that's not a correction anymore but the bubble unwinding. how i'm positioned: equities: 1/3 in spot. selling short-dated puts to leg into the stepdowns, using part of that premium to buy deep OTM puts as tail cover. crypto: don't fight the tape. short the bounces while it's under the 200ma, but a fed pivot or liquidity turn is my stop. the wildest sector on earth turning boring at the top, while the real risk hides in the debt nobody's marking daily. that's the whole setup.