coinbase never had pricing power on alts and in 2026 it's even getting worse 🫥 50 of the most traded alts on coinbase,not microcaps. % of minutes with 0 trades (21 – 22 utc): 2024: 14% 2025: 19% 2026: 51% ETH, SOL, XRP still print every minute but everything below is going dark. https://t.co/6R2tipSkCA
AI capex ↑ → corporate bond supply ↑ → long-term yields ↑ → AI valuations ↓
lower highs🙄the grind base case is happening,all you need is patience
🧐hyperscaler fcf going negative isn't a footnote. it's the whole story. that gap gets funded with debt. oracle's downgrade is the first invoice. watch the cds not the earnings.
👀my read on 2026 H2 and how i'm positioned: the base case for the second half is stepwise deleveraging from stretched highs, not an ai bubble collapse, but not a continuation of ai euphoria either. the whole thing rests on one condition: credit stays intact. HY OAS is still low. the private credit behind the ai buildout is the real landmine, but it hasn't turned into a systemic credit event yet. as long as that holds, ai can grind at the top and bleed leverage on repeat. what's got me leaning this way: > leverage is still high. margin debt is at record highs, and SOXL still trades at a premium into selloffs. > hawkish backdrop. this market already priced in cuts. so no cut IS the bad news. higher for longer welds the valuation ceiling shut. > the fed got less legible. Warsh scrapped the rate roadmap, so every data print swings harder and the post event vol crush fades. > geopolitical tail is back. hormuz and oil are re-entering the pricing, with crude bouncing off the lows. net: an asymmetric tape. good news gets muted and bad news gets amplified. two paths from here. i lean the FIRST. 1. grind lower in steps — base case leverage never fully clears. small bounces, lower highs each time. jul-aug bleeds. late aug, the jackson hole + NVDA window could trigger a short bounce. sep into early nov, seasonality stacks on top of more deleveraging. post election early nov probably bounces, but the size depends on two things: did leverage actually clear, and did the fed actually pivot. 2. flush then new highs — the optimistic long shot 2024-H2 crypto style. brutal setup though. both have to happen: a loud capitulation flush in jul-aug that wipes leverage clean, AND macro turning good with the fed going dovish. line those up with post election seasonality and year-end highs are back on the table. but now the first condition isn't close yet. the tail: if private credit, ai data center financing, and HY OAS all start bleeding in one direction, that's not a correction anymore but the bubble unwinding. how i'm positioned: equities: 1/3 in spot. selling short-dated puts to leg into the stepdowns, using part of that premium to buy deep OTM puts as tail cover. crypto: don't fight the tape. short the bounces while it's under the 200ma, but a fed pivot or liquidity turn is my stop. the wildest sector on earth turning boring at the top, while the real risk hides in the debt nobody's marking daily. that's the whole setup.
The eight-character fortune teller on Moments is already predicting stock trends—it’s clear that the market is currently very anxious 😐 https://t.co/gNuizzqyrk
meta renting out spare compute doesn't mean ai demand is topping. meta's renting bc right now its own compute earns less run internally than it does rented to someone else. that's a margin call on utilization, not a demand call. demand didn't change. what the market wants from compute did. it flipped from "how much do you own" to "how much profit do you squeeze out of what you own." the metric quietly moved from capacity to conversion. here's the part that matters. if more companies find they can't fully digest the compute they bought, "just stack more gpus" stops being an obvious trade. and the second the market stops rewarding raw capacity and starts pricing conversion, the commodity layer is the one that gets repriced first.
btc went from the most degen, volatile asset to an increasingly boring one in just a few years. vol just keeps bleeding out. but here's what got me: trend coherence is going UP at the same time. (also why mean reversion plays on btc print way less than they used to.) pulled 2017–2026: >vol regime compressed ~1/3 (3.6% → 2.4%) > up-legs smaller but slower: median 21% → 15%, duration 13 → 19 days > sharp crashes dying out: ~1.2 → ~0.4/yr the counterintuitive part: trends didn't get choppier, they got MORE coherent. > single-leg death rate (fakeouts that die after 1 leg) dropped 56% → 35% so once btc commits to a direction now, odds it chains into 2+ legs keep climbing. method: legs cut via directional change (θ = K·σ), 9yrs, bucketed by era, no params fit to force it. anyway the wildest asset on earth turning into a blue chip is honestly its own bull case.
The U.S. CPI and PPI data over the past two days have once again surged. Industrial raw material prices continue to skyrocket, and inflationary pressures are clearly re-emerging. I run a cross-border store selling camera accessories, and I’ve just received another price increase notice from my supplier due to rising copper prices. This is the second price hike this year, and both the frequency and magnitude are clearly unprecedented in recent years. Combined with the ongoing weakening of the U.S. dollar, we’re preparing to eliminate all market discounts and may consider further price increases going forward. Previously, inflation felt like just macroeconomic data and headline news—but now, I’ve personally experienced the full transmission chain: from supply chains and raw materials to exchange rates and final retail prices. In a way, this might be a small but real microcosm of why inflation is returning in this U.S. cycle.