Why are hikes back on the table when inflation is clearly transitory, war and energy driven? The hike was never about that. What changed is the Fed regime. Warsh tore up the dot plots and guidance, and made it clear price stability is the goal. That uncertainty that the fed will hike just to really kill inflation carries a risk premium. A hawkish front end then drags the long end down. Exactly what Trump put Warsh in for.
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