
btc went from the most degen, volatile asset to an increasingly boring one in just a few years. vol just keeps bleeding out. but here's what got me: trend coherence is going UP at the same time. (also why mean reversion plays on btc print way less than they used to.) pulled 2017–2026: >vol regime compressed ~1/3 (3.6% → 2.4%) > up-legs smaller but slower: median 21% → 15%, duration 13 → 19 days > sharp crashes dying out: ~1.2 → ~0.4/yr the counterintuitive part: trends didn't get choppier, they got MORE coherent. > single-leg death rate (fakeouts that die after 1 leg) dropped 56% → 35% so once btc commits to a direction now, odds it chains into 2+ legs keep climbing. method: legs cut via directional change (θ = K·σ), 9yrs, bucketed by era, no params fit to force it. anyway the wildest asset on earth turning into a blue chip is honestly its own bull case.
