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Yesterday's Fed meeting was the most unusual in years. Here's why it matters. Warsh held rates, stripped forward guidance, skipped his own dot plot projection, & launched task forces to review everything. His answer to every policy question: "We have a task force for that." The committee showed half projecting a hike, half a hold. Median dot: 3.8% by year-end (one 25bp hike). September hike odds are at 50%+ from 30%. But is Warsh himself a hawk or dove? Nobody knows - he deliberately didn't say. For decades, the Fed told markets what to expect and Warsh has changed that. Whether that's bold reform or reckless opacity depends on what inflation does next.

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