Idea Update At this stage, both the data and the market structure continue to align with the scenarios we outlined earlier. Price has now reached the *0.5 level associated with both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. The higher-quality path would be a move back into the $76K–78K region to reset positioning, unwind algorithmic imbalances, and then potentially trigger a faster acceleration to the downside. The more aggressive scenario would be for price to spend some time around $70K, fail to attract sufficient demand, break lower, and move toward a $65K test for bitcoin:native without first revisiting higher levels. At the moment, I would assign approximately 70/30 odds in favor of the first scenario, with a test of the $76K–78K area remaining the higher-probability outcome. Also, I’ve noticed people trying to reach out through different channels to ask questions. Don’t overcomplicate it just leave your questions in the comments. That helps me understand how deep you want the analysis to go and whether it makes sense to move beyond the visual interpretation and start sharing more of the quantitative side behind the framework.