
I like the phrase: “Data is Stubborn” That's why it needs a critical analysis and not just surface level comparisons What you've done is the classic low-base and volatile headline CPI cherrypicking once you apply the full economic toolkit, which I've done below, the cracks become evident and the data, while stubborn, less impressive, and less impressive BECAUSE it is stubborn. Don't worry, I'd put you through as I always do, cause we need to up the level of macroeconomic thought in Nigeria. This is why your data presentation and understanding of it is shallow: Deflation is actually destructive under the real growth circumstances. Apart from the fact that the Nigerian economy is at least 13-20× larger. A smaller market would record price deflation under extreme conditions we've experienced in Q1, low weak consumption can actually deliver deflation absent a significant productivity growth (there hasn't been one, that's "good" deflation). The growth rates also show a modest increase in overall GDP compared to Nigeria. I've gone through the trouble to analyse last year's GDP figures. Country Total GDP Absolute GDP ($b). %∆ Increase ($b) Nigeria $377.37 4.1% +$15.47 Benin. $27.79. 7.0% +$1.95 Niger. $24.8 6.7% +$1.66 Chad $25.63 5.2% +$1.33 Togo $13.44 5.0%. +0.67 [These are Implied Growth Rates from the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026 vintage) for 2026 nominal GDP projections] Nigeria's "low" output growth surpasses all these countries combined in absolute terms meaning Nigeria delivered and delivers the bulk of expansion in the West African Region. This is why real economists do cross-sectional data assessment before typing. This is a "one-off" supply relief from increased food production, and not so dense effective demand when you do a PPP comparison. Headline CPI is influenced by food and energy prices which are volatile. Core inflation is where the real game is at, as it includes items that are not as volatile as good and energy. A good harvest season, that surpasses effective demand would see inflation pressures, when it becomes deflationary, absent productivity growth or real capital formation gains, it's actually not a good signal. Productivity growth would show in trade balances and rea capital formation. Benin and Niger's real capital formation is approximately 12× smaller than that of Nigeria, for Chad and Togo almost 19× smaller than Nigeria's real capital formation (in absolute terms). In trade terms, whilst Nigeria saw a robust trade balance in the tens of billions in 2025, no full year surplus was reported for Benin, Togo, Niger (I'm not sure about Chad, but it's trend in the past two years have been under $4bn. So, the deflation in Q1 and "high" GDP growth are basically micro-scale economies, with way less investments and mostly structural trade deficits, this reinforces the "destructive deflation" point I made earlier. Again, Data is STUBBORN, yes. That's why it needs a critical analysis and not just surface level comparisons. Well, an economist would now this, a financial educator wannabe wouldn't. Large following ≠ great analysis. Be humble and learn from accounts like mine cause tuition is free.




