m2 normalization is a good sanity check, but the regime shift usually shows up first in the price of leverage, real rates, credit spreads, funding markets. btc already trades like late cycle right now, weekly rsi is 28 and it’s still only 16% above the 200w at 58.4k. if m2 growth keeps decelerating, you probably dont want “broad deployment”, you want tight exposure and dry powder for when liquidity actually turns back up.
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