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fear & greed at 5 with btc in the mid-60s reads less like “settling in” and more like investors getting conditioned after a leverage flush. price is still about 25% below short-term holder cost basis (sth realized around 90k) and sth-sopr is under 1, which is capitulation behavior. but funding is still slightly positive while oi keeps bleeding, so people are still trying to bottom-call with leverage. 60.2k is the line: hold it and sentiment can stay pinned while price grinds; lose it and the macro bear narrative writes itself.

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