SABAH REPORT | Thursday – February 19, 2026 A) Political Developments According to the WSJ, the U.S. has assembled its largest military air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The Trump administration labeled Iran’s progress in uranium enrichment as “dangerous” and announced it is in the preparatory stage for new sanctions. Iran reiterated that it will not respond to “excessive demands,” while maintaining limited cooperation with the IAEA. Israel continues to keep potential military options against Iran’s nuclear facilities on the table; Netanyahu emphasized Iran as the “primary threat” during his recent conversation with Trump. U.S.-UK joint air operations against Houthi forces in the Red Sea have intensified again over the past 24 hours; the Houthis have declared they will continue attacks on “Israel-linked vessels.” Geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices have risen significantly. #FED January Meeting Minutes (released last night) The minutes revealed that members were not eager to cut interest rates. While inflation was noted to be progressing toward the target, persistent “sticky” elements remain. Most members indicated they would maintain a data-dependent approach and require further evidence before cutting rates. Some members signaled a potential slowdown in balance sheet reduction, but the overall tone was assessed as “patient.” Market expectations for a March rate cut have fallen below 30%. U.S. Domestic Politics (DHS-focused partial government shutdown – Day 6) Shutdown effects continue: TSA lines at airports have lengthened, border operations have slowed, and FEMA faces resource constraints in disaster aid. Trump reiterated his threat of a “long-term shutdown,” with no progress in negotiations; Democratic demands for ICE reform have created a deadlock. The EU is evaluating options to support a transitional committee to administer civil governance in Gaza. Steps toward integrating the SDF into official structures within Syria are on the agenda. B) Economic Calendar China’s Spring Festival holiday continues; Chinese markets remain closed, and liquidity in Asia remains low. 16:30 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; Continuing Claims; Philadelphia Manufacturing Index; Trade Balance; Advance Wholesale Inventories; Foreign Trade Balance 18:00 — Pending Home Sales; Leading Index Calendar Note: The impact of China’s Spring Festival holiday persists (February 15–23); volumes remain low in commodities and Asian markets. The market’s primary focus today will be the overnight release of the FED minutes; U.S. data may take a back seat. MAIN THEME OF THE DAY Iran-centered geopolitical tensions (nuclear + Red Sea) are pushing energy prices and risk premiums higher, while the FED minutes’ “patient” tone has delayed expectations for rate cuts and supported the dollar. The operational impacts of the DHS partial shutdown are increasing domestic political uncertainty. Combined with low liquidity due to China’s holiday, markets are expected to remain cautious. #gold #bitcoin