$BTC $BTC 2.16 Bitcoin Market Analysis: Bitcoin completed its W wave decline from the high of $126,000 to around $80,000, followed by an X wave consolidation, and is now in the midst of a Y wave correction. The drop from $98,000 to $60,000 is defined as wave Ya; we are currently within the B wave of the Y wave structure, known as YB wave. The key point is that this YB wave correction may not yet be complete. When zooming in on the YB wave structure, the rebound near $60,000 was previously interpreted as wave a or wave w, with the expectation that it would be followed by a c wave rally. However, the latest analysis reveals a clear downward trend structure on the 15-minute chart, indicating that the current pullback is not a healthy correction but rather part of a broader downtrend—likely evolving into either wave a or wave e of a larger decline. Given the breakdown in smaller-timeframe trends and Ethereum’s extreme weakness, Bitcoin’s YB wave may continue to decline, potentially breaking below the prior low to complete the entire consolidation pattern. Therefore, the original plan to buy on pullbacks must be revised. Until the YB wave structure is confirmed complete, adopt a trend-following short bias with tight stop-losses, waiting for a breakdown of key support levels below. Ethereum is significantly weaker than Bitcoin, having retraced over 70% of its prior rally. If Bitcoin continues lower, Ethereum’s key support levels are highly vulnerable to breakdown. Its broader structure is also within a Y wave YB wave consolidation, and last night’s sharp decline suggests its correction may be more complex—raising concerns about correlated downside risk. The overall market remains in a major corrective wave phase with intense bullish-bearish conflict. During the Chinese New Year holiday, we recommend reducing leverage, trading cautiously, strictly setting stop-losses, and preparing for heightened market volatility.