Retail data unexpectedly dropped, consumption stagnated, the probability of a rate cut increased, and risk appetite for US equities rose, but risk assets remain cautious, why? Tonight's retail data was somewhat surprising, showing 0% for December retail, significantly below expectations and the previous value, indicating that consumption in December stagnated. Although the current mainstream interpretation does not indicate risk, the risk factors have not been completely eliminated! This retail data boosted the probability of a rate cut, pushing the March rate cut probability from 17.7% to 21.6%, and the April rate cut probability from 32.4% to 36.9%, while the June rate cut probability dropped from 51.6% to 49%. In other words, although tonight's retail data pushed for a rate cut, it did not push the short-term rate cut probability above 50%, instead lowering the probability of a June rate cut. Therefore, this retail data is not yet safe. Currently, if Friday's CPI rises above expectations, the expectation of stagflation will increase, further boosting the expectation of a rate cut, but this would be a blow to the economy. If Wednesday's employment data drops below expectations, the macroeconomic data for this week would indicate low consumption, high inflation, and low employment, a stagflationary economy, which could directly lead to market expectations of an economic recession. The true safety of the employment data expectations still depends on how the employment and inflation data turn out. What impact does the consumption data have on financial markets? Gold maintains a stable upward trend, with multiple uncertainties such as the US economy, deficit, policy direction, and geopolitics being the main factors keeping gold on a steady upward trajectory. The US dollar slightly weakened, as the data signaled economic weakness, which is bearish for the dollar. US Treasury 10-year and 30-year long-term interest rates rose, with the 30-year rate rising more than the 10-year rate. This indicates that the market is concerned about future inflation, especially fearing a future stagflationary environment amid declining consumption capacity. At the same time, the 30-year long-term bonds outperforming the 10-year bonds in the short term suggests an increased demand for duration risk. The economic expectations brought by the data have not directly damaged market confidence, so US equity indices rose, and the SPHB/SPHQ ratio increased, indicating an increase in risk appetite for US equities. However, the gains in tech stocks and #Bitcoin were not significant, suggesting that the current macroeconomic narrative and optimistic risk appetite cannot directly attract market capital, especially in the current phase of poor liquidity. To attract capital to buy in, a more optimistic and powerful narrative is needed. Overall summary: At this stage, employment and CPI data have not yet been released, and financial markets continue to wait for the data to clarify expectations. On the other hand, in a phase of poor macroeconomic narrative and liquidity, capital is also waiting for clearer signals. Although risk appetite has increased in the short term, the market has not made effective decisions yet. We still need to continue watching the employment data and Friday's CPI data. For the future, either the probability of rate cuts in March and April will be pushed above 50%, or the economic data will show stable and optimistic economic growth, which is positive for US blue-chip stocks. BTC has no better appeal, and gold will continue to fluctuate.