Weekly Crypto Market Decoded

1. Summary

The crypto market remains largely indifferent to current trade policy tensions, showing strong independent upward momentum. A rare supply vacuum has re-emerged, reinforcing bullish sentiment. However, with long-term holders starting to sell, the market faces a test of buying strength. Looking ahead, unless tariffs escalate significantly, market catalysts will focus on two fronts: macro-wise, next week’s CPI data will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s policy path and global risk appetite; industry-wise, the upcoming “Crypto Policy Week” — with legislative developments on the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS Act — is expected to play a key role in influencing market sentiment.

2. Key Events：The independence of the Federal Reserve faces another challenge, Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0 Upgrade as Scheduled

2.1 The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting cautiously signaled a dovish approach; the independence of the Federal Reserve faced further challenges

7.9 - In June, the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation in the United States was 3.02%, lower than both the previous value and expectations

7.9 - Trump: Powell should resign immediately if he misleads Congress on the renovation bill; Congress should investigate Powell

7.10 - NVIDIA achieves a market capitalization of over $4 trillion

7.10 - Federal Reserve Minutes: Most Officials Believe Tariffs May Continue to Drive Inflation Higher, While a Few Are Willing to Consider Cutting Interest Rates at the Next Meeting

7.11 - Fed's Daley: Expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with tariff impact possibly weaker than expected

7.14 - US President Trump: I won't fire Fed Chairman Powell; if Powell steps down, that would be a good thing

7.14 - "Mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve": The independence of the Federal Reserve faces another challenge, and it is expected that interest rates will not be cut this month

7.14 - Fed's Goolsbee warns: Latest tariff threats may delay the process of interest rate cuts

CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary

MEETING DATE	300-325	325-350	350-375	375-400	400-425	425-450
2025/7/30	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.7%	93.3%
2025/9/17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.9%	57.0%	39.1%
2025/10/29	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	35.7%	46.3%	15.7%
2025/12/10	0.0%	1.7%	26.4%	43.3%	24.2%	4.4%

2.2 Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0 Escalates as Expected: Tax Rates Change Little, but Timing Delayed

7.8 - Trump announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea, a 25% tariff on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, a 30% tariff on South Africa, and a 40% tariff on Laos and Myanmar

7.8 - Trump officially extends the "reciprocal tariff" moratorium to August 1st

7.8 - Trump: Any country that aligns with the anti-American policies of the BRICS nations will be subject to an additional 10% tariff

7.10 - Trump sent trade letters to Brazil, the Philippines, Brunei, Algeria and other countries, with Brazil imposing tariffs of up to 50%

7.10 - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025

7.11 - Trump: Imposes 35% tariffs on Canada;

7.14 - Trump announces 30% tariffs on Mexican and EU goods

7.14 - EU President: Will extend the suspension period of countermeasures against US tariffs to early August

3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance

3.1 Tariff desensitization, US stocks continue to hit record highs

The market has responded indifferently to the three waves of tariff letters from the Trump administration, viewing recent trade policies as more of a pressure and negotiation technique, with the “TACO trade” demonstrating exceptional resilience. Despite the third round of tariff shocks coupled with the controversy over the independence of the Federal Reserve, which led to a decline in all three major U.S. stock indexes on Friday (the S&P 500 fell 0.31% for the week, and the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.08%), the two benchmark indexes still hit record highs this week, highlighting the inherent strength of the market. In terms of small-cap stocks, the 0.63% decline in the Russell 2000 index indicates a slight contraction in risk appetite.

Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends

3.2 Bitcoin hits a new high. The independent market situation is prominent

The cryptocurrency market maintains a strong and optimistic sentiment, with the Fear & Greed Index remaining in the "greed" range this week. Bitcoin continues its strong performance, rising 9.04% over the week and consistently hitting new all-time highs (recently surpassing $120,000). Notably, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stock markets has significantly weakened, indicating that cryptocurrency assets are moving towards independent trends as they reach new highs. At the same time, their sensitivity to trade policies is relatively limited, reflecting the increasing attractiveness of the cryptocurrency market to capital.

Figure 2: BTC Price Trends

3.3 The activity level of trading has rebounded significantly,However, the flow of funds is diverging

As of July 13th, the total market capitalization reached $3.7181 trillion, marking a weekly increase of 10.72%. In terms of market trading, the total trading volume for the week was $971.05 billion, representing a 40.78% increase from the previous week, with a significant rebound in trading activity. Structurally, Bitcoin trading volume amounted to $418.86 billion, marking a 38.12% increase from the previous week, comparable to the trading volume during the election week. Bitcoin's dominance decreased by 0.69%, with its trading volume share dropping to 42.55%. In contrast, Altcoin trading volume increased by 42.86% month-on-month, but overall it was only half of the trading volume during the election week. Amidst Bitcoin reaching new highs, the sentiment in the Altcoin market remained sluggish, with only some coins experiencing a rebound in exchange rates.

Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins

4. BTC Trend Analysis

4.1 The signal of reduction in holdings by long-term holders has been released. The market will face a buying test

As the "wind vane" of the market, the movements of long-term holders have always been closely watched. Although the initial reduction in BTC holdings by long-term holders has had limited impact on the market, when they accelerate their distribution, the market usually reaches a phased high point. Currently, the recent growth rate of long-term holders' holdings has slowed down, and there are sustained signs of reduction, indicating that chips are being released from strong hands into the market, which will test the market's buying power.

Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution

4.2 Bitcoin reappears with a chip vacuum structure, strengthening bullish sentiment

After a week of strong upward trend, the URPD structure of Bitcoin has undergone significant changes, forming a relatively rare chip vacuum zone. The latest on-chain data shows that there is a notable chip gap in the price range of 112k-120k. This market structure is highly similar to the market situation in the week after the US presidential election in November 2024, when BTC subsequently embarked on a one-month unilateral upward trend.

From the perspective of market behavior, the current chip vacuum structure indicates that:1) The buying momentum is concentrated and robust, with a notable market absorption capacity;2) The trading volume in the 104k-108k range has been fully exchanged, indicating limited short-term selling pressure.

Although the current market environment differs from that of November 2024, such a robust buying momentum driving prices to swiftly break through key resistance levels is likely to trigger FOMO sentiment in the market, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.The area near 117k serves as a significant support level in the near term.

Figure 5: BTC Chip Structure

4.3 Market Summary and Outlook: Meet the dual challenges of policy and data

Overall, the cryptocurrency market has shown a lukewarm response to current trade policies, exhibiting strong independent upward momentum. The rare chip vacuum structure has reappeared, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the market. Looking ahead, as long as tariffs do not systematically escalate, the market catalysts will mainly focus on two aspects: at the macro level, the CPI data to be released next week will provide crucial guidance on the Fed's policy path for the second half of the year and global risk appetite. If inflation does not rebound significantly, the optimistic market expectations are likely to persist; at the industry level, next week will mark the crucial "Crypto Policy Week", where legislative progress on the "CLARITY Act", "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act", and "GENIUS Act" will become important variables affecting market sentiment.

Figure 6: BTC Chip Supply Situation

5. Regulatory Trends

America

The US House of Representatives' hearing on the framework of the cryptocurrency tax system has been postponed due to the recess, with no new date set yet
The Trump administration's Digital Assets Task Force will submit its first major report on cryptocurrency policy on July 22nd
The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" proposed by the Senate next week, abandoning its own version
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a statement on the tokenization of securities, emphasizing the need to comply with federal securities laws
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has officially rescinded the reporting rules for cryptocurrency brokers, no longer requiring DeFi brokers to provide user data

Asia

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary: Aim to issue stablecoin license within this year
Hafu Securities receives approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset trading services
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanghai Municipality, China, held a central group study meeting on the development trends and coping strategies of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins

Europe

The European Union has issued MiCA licenses to 53 cryptocurrency enterprises, including 14 stablecoin issuers and 39 providers of cryptocurrency asset services
Robinhood's tokenized stocks face EU scrutiny, with Lithuanian central bank seeking clarification

6. Accelerated implementation of stablecoin regulation, Solana ETF gaming, and ETH institutionalization wave

Regulation of stablecoins and accelerated evolution of market landscape

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary: Aim to issue stablecoin licenses within this year
The European Union has issued MiCA licenses to 53 cryptocurrency enterprises, including 14 stablecoin issuers
The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act"
Tether will cease its support for USDT on networks such as EOS and Algorand on September 1st
According to reports, Ant Group was set to add Circle's stablecoin to Ant International (this was later denied)

Progress on crypto ETFs diverges, with Solana emerging as a new focal point

The US SEC urges issuers to revise and resubmit the application for the spot Solana ETF by the end of July
SEC postpones approval of Fidelity's spot Solana ETF
SEC delays approval of BlackRock's physical redemption method for its spot Ethereum ETF
Truth Social submits S-1 filing application for cryptocurrency blue-chip ETF (including BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.)

Listed companies shift their strategic allocation to Ethereum

MicroStrategy may disclose its Bitcoin holding increase plan again
Bit Digital converted BTC into ETH, accumulating over 100,000 ETH, and raised an additional $172 million to purchase ETH
Real estate company Murano signs a $500 million equity agreement to establish a Bitcoin reserve
US-listed company GameSquare announces the establishment of a $100 million ETH treasury in phases
SharpLink increased its holdings by 7,689 ETH, with a total holding of over 200,000 ETH
Blockchain technology company BTCS Inc. plans to raise $100 million to acquire Ethereum
K Wave Media, a listed company in the US stock market, has secured $1 billion in financing to advance its Bitcoin strategy and has acquired 88 BTC
ReserveOne plans to launch a digital asset reserve worth over $1 billion, primarily composed of Bitcoin, which will be custodied by Coinbase

Other

Musk: "The American Party" will embrace Bitcoin
Ethereum Foundation restructures its development strategy, focusing on four major areas including enterprise cooperation and developer ecosystem
xStocks will integrate Jupiter Lend, which is about to go live
189 addresses have invested the maximum amount of $1 million in the PUMP public sale
Eric Trump confirms attendance and speech at BTC Asia Summit in Hong Kong

7. Next week's outlook

JUL 2025 Crypto Calendar

U.S. House Financial Services Committee: The week of July 14th will be designated as "Crypto Week", during which the Committee will deliberate on the "CLARITY Act", the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance of Nations Act", and the "GENIUS Act"

July 14: Trump will make a "major announcement" regarding Russia

July 15: US June CPI; SEI unlocked circulation accounts for 1.00%, with a value of approximately $18 million; STRK unlocked circulation accounts for 3.53%, with a value of approximately $17.6 million

July 16: US June PPI; US Economic Beige Book; US House Ways and Means Committee discusses digital asset tax policy at hearing; ARB unlocks 1.87% of circulation, worth approximately $38.2 million

July 17th: UXLINK's unlocked circulation accounted for 9.17%, with a value of approximately $14.2 million; SOLV's unlocked circulation accounted for 17.03%, with a value of approximately $11.3 million

July 18th: TRUMP unlocks 45% of the circulation, with a value of approximately $878 million; MELINIA unlocks 4.07% of the circulation, with a value of approximately $5.2 million

8. Reference

defillama.com
coinmarketcap.com
tradingview.com
cryptoslam.io
token.unlocks.app/
dune.com
itez.com/events
cryptorank.io/

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250713