
On this recent dip yesterday, it appears that some coins pre-deposited into exchanges took advantage of the low weekend liquidity to apply pressure on the order book. Meanwhile, there was no emotional expression on-chain. Realized losses on an on-chain basis did not rise; instead, they decreased. A key factor here is that this occurred over the weekend. Market makers, hedge funds, and other institutional positions will only adjust their exposures on Monday, during the workweek. Thus, yesterday’s behavior can be simply understood as an “exchange-only dump.” Whether this was intended to trigger liquidations or had other motives, we won’t resort to conspiracy theories. However, since October 14, open interest (OI) in perpetual contracts has been steadily accumulating, with each pullback failing to reduce positions—and yesterday’s decline also failed to achieve deleveraging. Currently, new positions have emerged on both the long and short sides. A significantly amplified volatility move is likely coming next; it just depends on which side gets triggered first.
