Clarify first: Quantum threats target signatures (Shor’s algorithm, which can derive private keys from exposed public keys), not mining. Three developments that will heat up the conversation in 2026: ・ On February 11, BIP-360 (the first quantum-resistant address type) was merged into the Bitcoin proposal repository ・ In March, Google Quantum AI’s research reduced the estimated number of qubits required to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve by approximately 20 times ・ In April, researchers broke a 15-qubit elliptic curve key on public quantum hardware, winning Project Eleven’s 1 BTC prize (still far from real-world attacks) However, industry consensus on timelines is quite uniform: ・ Grayscale believes it’s possible only after 2030 at the earliest, and will not affect prices in 2026 ・ Bernstein estimates the industry has 3 to 5 years to upgrade, not an urgent situation ・ Adam Back believes it still requires decades My view: The risk is real but manageable. A more practical question than “will it go to zero” is migration: How to move funds from old addresses with exposed public keys? BIP-361 proposes a phased migration, but lost coins and community coordination costs remain the real challenges. For individuals, avoiding address reuse and checking whether your wallet has a quantum-resistant upgrade path is more useful than panic. This is not investment advice.