Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250630

1. Summary

• Driven by the diminishing geopolitical risks, the risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market has significantly rebounded, with the total market value rising 8.79% to $3.3 trillion per week.Bitcoin has demonstrated strong market dominance, with its market value exceeding 66% and reaching a four-year high, while altcoins have shown weak performance, with trading volume decreasing by 11.2% month on month.Despite short-term profit taking from bargain hunting chips, the key support level for Bitcoin remains stable.The active turnover of Bitcoin and the weakened correlation with the US stock market indicate an intensification of divergence in the cryptocurrency market, mainly due to the uncertainty of macro events such as the tariff deadline in early July and Trump's tax reform.Looking ahead to the future, macro events such as the tariff deadline in early July and Trump's tax reform are expected to become key variables, significantly amplifying market volatility and potentially leading to a re strengthening of the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market.The current market divergence is intensifying, and investors need to focus on the impact of policy developments on risk appetite.

2. Key Events

2.1 The economic data is optimistic, and Powell‘s congressional hearing reiterated caution in cutting interest rates.The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is maintained, with two interest rate cuts within the year; The Trump Great Beauty Act is being pushed forward with difficulty

• 6.25- Powell stated that the United States is not in an economic recession and can wait before considering interest rate adjustments;If inflation and labor market weakness occur, interest rates may be cut early.
• 6.27- The final value of US GDP for the first quarter was revised downwards to shrink by 0.5%.
• 6.28- The US Senate passed a procedural motion with 51 votes to 49, pushing forward the massive tax and spending bill that Trump called the "Beautiful Bill". It is expected to be voted on on on the 30th and is scheduled to be sent to the President for signature before July 4th.
• 6.30- The annual core PCE price index for May in the United States was 2.7%, higher than the previous and expected 2.6%.
• 6.30- The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June in the United States was 60.7, slightly higher than the expected 60.5.
• 6.30- Trump said that the United States should control interest rates at 1% or 2% and does not want to pay 10-year debt at higher rates.

2.2 Tariffs&Geopolitical Conflicts：Iran Israel ceasefire, easing geopolitical conflict panic; Trade agreements are mixed, with optimistic prospects for European American agreements and tense trade relations between the US and Canada.

• 6.24- Iran and Israel announce formal ceasefire
• 6.25- Iranian President: 12 days-war ends, reconstruction work begins
• 6.25- Trump: We believe the war between Iran and Israel has ended, and the Israel Iran conflict may erupt again
• 6.26- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasizes that high tariffs bring great uncertainty and may affect future interest rate cut decisions.
• 6.27- von der Leyen told European leaders that he was confident of reaching an agreement with the US before the July deadline
• 6.28 - Canada insists on imposing digital tax, Trump abruptly terminates all US Canada trade negotiations

3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance

3.1 The disappearance of geopolitical risks boosts market confidence, US stock market hits historic high

• With the easing of geopolitical tensions, market panic has significantly subsided, and investors' risk appetite has rebounded significantly.The three major indexes of the US stock market collectively strengthened, with the S&P 500 index soaring 3.44% and the Nasdaq Composite index rising 4.25%, both breaking historical records;The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks rose 3.00%, demonstrating a comprehensive market recovery.At the same time, the US dollar index fluctuated downwards, while US bond yields continued to decline, hitting a new low in nearly three and a half months, further confirming the weakening of market demand for safe haven.

3.2 Bitcoin rebounded strongly, Macro factors dominate the direction of the cryptocurrency market

• With the recovery of market risk appetite, Bitcoin has experienced a significant rebound.The easing of geopolitical tensions has become a key catalyst, with Bitcoin rising 4.32% on the same day and then maintaining a volatile upward trend in the $106000-108000 range, with a cumulative weekly increase of 7.31%, once again approaching historical highs.The recent trend of Bitcoin has maintained a weak correlation with the US stock market, indicating that there has been significant divergence in Bitcoin recently.At present, macro events remain the most core influencing factor for Bitcoin's trend. With tariffs and Trump's tax policies approaching, we believe that this macro led trend will further strengthen in the near future, and the correlation between Bitcoin and US stock market trends will rebound.

3.3 Bitcoin's dominant position has reached a new high. Altcoins confidence needs to be further consolidated

4. BTC Trend Analysis

4.1 Short term profit taking market exits, The divergence between long and short positions intensifies

• On chain data shows that Bitcoin addresses have moved a total of 393000 BTC this week, an increase of 107000 compared to last week, and the market turnover rate has significantly increased.From the distribution of chips, the $100000-105000 range has become the main area for reducing holdings, indicating that short-term bottom fishing funds are choosing to take profits.At the same time, the $106000-108000 range has gathered major buying forces, which corresponds precisely to this week's long-term consolidation range and has become the core area for chip turnover.The intensive exchange of long and short chips reflects the clear divergence among market participants on the future trend, and the short-term price direction remains uncertain.

4.2 Short term profit taking has not occurredChange the support structure of Bitcoin

• Despite the short-term bottom selling chips of 100k-105k taking profits as the price rebounds, the overall support structure of Bitcoin remains stable.From the data on the chain, the $104000-106000 range constitutes the most important support zone at present. This region is not only a chip intensive area, but also has strong carrying capacity due to the continuous layout of institutional funds.The range of 96k-98.5k US dollars is the historical long-term support level, which plays a key role in maintaining the second largest support level;The $93000-94000 level is the third support level.

4.3 Market Summary and Outlook: Tariff progress will increase market sensitivity

• Overall, with the release of geopolitical conflict risk, the biggest influencing factor of the market in the past two weeks, the degree of market risk appetite has significantly increased.With the rebound of the market, short-term bottom selling chips began to take profits, but it did not change the support structure of Bitcoin.The active turnover of Bitcoin and the weakened correlation with the US stock market indicate an intensification of divergence in the cryptocurrency market, mainly due to the uncertainty of macro events such as the tariff deadline in early July and Trump's tax reform.As the tariff deadline approaches, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market is expected to significantly increase next week, and the progress of tariff agreements between different countries and the United States will amplify the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market is expected to rebound in the near future.

5. Regulatory Trends

• Ripple accepts $125 million fine and waives appeal against SEC.
• The US House of Representatives has passed a bill to promote the development of blockchain technology.
• Texas authorizes the seizure of criminal related digital assets through legislation, while Arizona passes the Bitcoin Reserve Act.
• The Federal Reserve claims that banks can provide services to the cryptocurrency industry, and progress has been made in the regulatory framework for stablecoins.

• Hong Kong optimizes the regulatory framework for digital assets, promotes the development of tokenized products, and plans to issue a small number of stablecoin licenses.
• Tianfeng Securities subsidiary has obtained a Hong Kong virtual asset trading license, and 40 institutions have upgraded their Hong Kong No.1 license.
• Japan is considering including encrypted assets in the Financial Instruments and Transactions Act for separate taxation.
• Eight major banks in South Korea plan to establish a joint venture to issue Korean won stablecoins.

• The EU plans to allow licensed companies' stablecoins to be exchanged with non EU subsidiaries, strengthening the MiCA regulatory framework.
• Romania plans to tax cryptocurrency profits.

• Argentina has established rules for virtual asset service providers, and non compliant registrations may be revoked.
• The Canadian banking regulatory agency is preparing to regulate stablecoins and is developing a regulatory framework.

6. Key Developments in the Crypto and Stablecoin Ecosystems: Expansion, Innovation, and Institutional Adoption

• Fisvev collaborates with PayPal and Circle to launch the US dollar stablecoin FIUSD.
• Eight major banks in South Korea plan to establish a joint venture to issue Korean won stablecoins.
• The EU plans to allow licensed companies' stablecoins to be exchanged with non EU subsidiaries, strengthening the MiCA regulatory framework.
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that it may initially approve a small number of stablecoin issuer licenses.
• Nano Labs plans to apply for a Hong Kong dollar and offshore RMB stablecoin business license.

• ETF experts predict that the US SEC may approve the Grayscale GDLC ETF this week.
• NYSE Arca applies to launch Truth Social Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

• Guotai Junan International has obtained relevant virtual asset trading services, including cryptocurrency
• Metaplanet has increased its holdings of BTC multiple times, with a total holding of 12345 units.
• ProCap acquires 3724 bitcoins worth $386.5 million.
• GameStop raises $450 million to increase its holdings of Bitcoin.
• Bit Digital will transform into an Ethereum staking company and gradually withdraw from Bitcoin mining.
• Bakkt updates its investment policy and plans to issue $1 billion worth of securities and include them in digital assets.
• Panther Metals (a UK listed company) plans to establish a £ 4 million Bitcoin reserve.
• Delin Holdings (Hong Kong stock) and ViaBTC establish a joint venture company to establish Bitcoin reserves.

• Gemini offers tokenized stock trading to EU clients, with the first being MicroStrategy (MSTR).
• Republic plans to tokenize stocks of companies such as SpaceX.
• Dinari has obtained permission from the United States to offer tokenized stock trading.
• The Hong Kong government is promoting the tokenization of gold, non-ferrous metals, and new energy.

• Base Joint Creation announces that a major announcement will be released on July 16th.
• Robinhood launches micro futures contracts for XRP and SOL.
• Polymarket has raised nearly $200 million in financing and is valued at over $1 billion.
• Michael Saylor hinted that MicroStrategy may continue to increase its holdings of BTC.

7. Next week's outlook

• July 1st: S&P Global released the US June ISM Manufacturing Index; Argentina has finalized rules for virtual asset service providers, requiring individuals registered on PSAV to comply with the new regulations by July 1st; Ledn, a cryptocurrency lending platform, announced that it will terminate Ethereum support and interest bearing business, and fully transition to a Bitcoin collateralized lending model; The Sui ratio is 1.3%, with a value of approximately 122.8 million US dollars; Zama, a confidential blockchain protocol focused on privacy, will launch its testing network on July 1st
• July 2nd: Ethena (ENA) ratio is 0.67%, valued at approximately $10.7 million
• July 3rd: The United States will release its June non farm payroll report at 20:30 on Thursday
• July 4th: The US stock market will be closed for one day to commemorate the independence of the United States. Musk said that Grok 4 will be released after July 4th; the US Senate will hold a crucial vote on the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and Congress will vote on the related bill on July 4th

8. Reference

• defillama.com
• coinmarketcap.com
• tradingview.com
• cryptoslam.io
• token.unlocks.app/
• dune.com
• itez.com/events
• cryptorank.io/