https://t.co/BPPkXJ62ud 【BREAKING】Nikkei Average Surpasses Post-War High, Soars by 3,200 Yen! Trump President’s News of Ceasefire Agreement with Iran Drives Capital Inflow into Risk Assets by Masaki Okura [MBA Holder, 31 Published Business Books] #AISummary The Nikkei Average surged due to easing Middle East tensions and rising semiconductor stocks. 🔳 Rapid Surge in Nikkei Average During Golden Week, Nikkei futures rose sharply, and Japanese equities opened after the holiday with an increase of nearly 2,600 yen. The Nikkei Average broke past 61,000 and approached 62,000, showing strong momentum to surpass its post-war high. 🔳 Primary Drivers of the Rally President Trump advanced ceasefire negotiations with Iran, sparking positive market sentiment over the possibility of avoiding military conflict and signing a memorandum on nuclear-related agreements. The absence of strong denials from Iran further improved market psychology. 🔳 U.S. Stocks and Semiconductor Stocks In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 612 points, and the Nasdaq climbed 512 points, with semiconductor-related stocks—led by NVIDIA—showing strong performance. The rally in U.S. equities and strong earnings from semiconductor companies spilled over to Japanese stocks, further fueling the upward movement. 🔳 Developments Surrounding the Strait of Hormuz The U.S. signaled its commitment to supporting and ensuring the safety of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating monitoring and assistance efforts through its Central Command. Meanwhile, Iranian tankers faced restrictions, intensifying pressure on Iran’s economy—factors cited as contributing to the momentum toward ceasefire negotiations. 🔳 Impact of Middle East Tensions Easing This stock rally is viewed as a recovery of losses previously incurred due to Iran-related concerns. Without Middle East tensions, the Nikkei Average might have reached around 63,000; should ceasefire talks progress further, a move toward that level remains possible. 🔳 Investment Strategy While capital continues to flow into semiconductor-related stocks, caution is advised regarding rising margin buying and signs of overheating. A strategy of selling profits in installments rather than all at once to average entry prices was recommended. During uptrends, reducing position size and buying back during pullbacks was suggested as an effective approach. 🔳 Stocks to Watch Advantest rose strongly on strong demand for semiconductor testing equipment and solid earnings. Taiyo Yuden and Sumitomo Electric Industries also attracted attention as semiconductor and electronic components players. SoftBank Group surged significantly and may re-enter an uptrend. 🔳 Sector Rotation While Japanese equities have continued to rally heavily in semiconductor-related sectors, there are signs that capital may now be beginning to rotate toward underperforming stocks, low-priced stocks, and value stocks. Stocks such as Toyota in the mobility sector were highlighted as candidates for watchlists, with emphasis on timing entries according to personal strategy. 🔳 Outlook on Monetary Policy A sharp drop in oil prices has made another U.S. rate cut more likely, raising expectations for a soft landing. Meanwhile, if Middle East tensions ease, Japan may move toward rate hikes; this combination of U.S. rate cuts and Japanese rate hikes could lead to a sustained appreciation of the yen. 🔳 Japan’s Geopolitical Challenges Triggered by Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz issue, discussions emerged on the need for Japan to reassess its energy dependence and weak defense capabilities. Given Japan’s geopolitical position facing Russia, China, and North Korea, strengthening defense capabilities and alliance relationships was deemed essential. 🔳 Key Points to Watch Going Forward While the Nikkei Average still has room to rise toward 63,000, caution is advised regarding rising margin buying and potential exhaustion of upward momentum. It is crucial to monitor overseas investor flows and capital movements between sectors while remaining vigilant against excessive speculation and strategically navigating the market.