I. Geopolitical level: Since the day the U.S.-Iran negotiations began, I said that this factor would have diminishing influence on market movements. To be honest, I didn’t expect the talks to progress so quickly and with so little back-and-forth—this is now a positive. But conversely, just as its negative impact weakens, so too does its positive impact. As this factor’s weight in future market dynamics continues to decline, it can be disregarded. II. Policy: I’ve fallen into an information bubble. Lately, my X “Recommended for You” feed has been flooded with posts about the “CLARITY ACT”—all English-language fake news (old news with new headlines). Yet, I haven’t seen any markup published. With 12 days left in April, as the window narrows, if no progress is visible within this period, sentiment in the crypto space (including crypto-related stocks) could experience a sharp reversal. III. Liquidity: Key events (news, policies, etc.) shouldn’t be used to subjectively guess market direction—they give us a better lens to observe how assets react to event-driven stimuli. For instance, recent liquidity tightening showed that asset performance prior to tightening was actually strong. Moreover, the liquidity tightening window is narrow (tightening begins April 15, easing after month-end). IV. U.S. equities: We can view this as a new uptrend. Although indices appear alarming, internal rotation among sectors remains orderly and healthy (aside from this 17-day consecutive rally). V. Crypto: Currently, this remains only a rebound. The situation is as follows: 1. BTC is rising closer to structural resistance, ratio pressure, and moving average pressure (Figure 1); 2. The view that “altcoins are garbage and this is a dead cat bounce” (short-term profit opportunity, long-term bearish) remains unchanged. Following this logic, as more low-cap altcoins join the dead cat bounce, the market grows increasingly risky—especially with no visible接力 from large-cap coins; 3. Simple logic: U.S. equities are experiencing a new uptrend (a rebound from fundamental mispricing); BTC and ETH are following that sentiment; small-cap garbage altcoins are amplifying that sentiment; 4. The next key short-term trigger point, in my view, is the progress of the “CLARITY ACT.” If definitive positive news emerges soon, this rally may transition from a sentiment-driven dead cat bounce to a fundamentally supported uptrend. If negative news arrives instead, prepare for a brutal downside reversal after extreme euphoria. I’m not discussing long-term outlooks—there are too many variables: even if the bill fails, what if liquidity returns in May? What if Fed policy shifts? What new surprises emerge? Stick to price action. 5. Long-term technical analysis in this post: https://t.co/p9kQnxmqmz Theoretically, the higher it rises, the better. VI. Finally, on trading: 1. In crypto, there may still be sentiment pulses, but I believe we’ve reached the stage where you’ve already missed the boat (how many levels higher than teachers telling you to short at $70k, $72k, $74k, $76k?). I’m holding only one coin; if it doesn’t move next week, I’m selling it too—giving it one more week (a small altcoin I won’t name). 2. Want to short crypto but it’s too volatile? Fine—keep sending this idiot Silver to $50 (Figure 2). 3. In U.S. equities: I reduced my position below $90 after buying at over $100 in $CRCL. After FOMO, catching falling knives, micro-break-even, and finally turning profitable, I can now rationally assess this stock—process was nerve-wracking but manageable. I reallocated part of my position into $HOOD; it has a gap near $98 (Figure 3), and I believe the first leg up will reach that level. 4. After feedback from actions 1, 2, and 3, I’ll formulate my next trading plan. ------If my tweets have helped you, please turn on the bell and engage. Thank you------