AMD-এর ফিনান্সিয়াল রিপোর্ট এক্সপেক্টেশন ছাড়িয়ে গেল, কিন্তু আজ Arm-এর ফিনান্সিয়াল রিপোর্ট এক্সপেক্টেশন ছাড়িয়ে গেলেও পোস্ট-মার্কেটে পড়ল—কেন? বিস্তারিত দেখে বুঝলাম, চাহিদা শক্তিশালী, সরবরাহ দুর্বল, এবং বাস্তবায়ন ধীর। 1. সর্বশেষ ত্রৈমাসিক রিপোর্টে রাজস্ব 20.2% বৃদ্ধি পেয়ে 1.49 বিলিয়ন ডলারে পৌঁছেছে, এডজাস্টেড EPS 0.60 ডলার—উভয়ই এক্সপেক্টেশন ছাড়িয়েছে। পরবর্তী ত্রৈমাসিকের জন্য রাজস্বের পূর্বানুমান 1.29 বিলিয়ন ডলার, এডজাস্টেড EPS 0.36–0.44 ডলার—এগুলোও আগের পূর্বানুমানের চেয়ে উচ্চতর। অর্থাৎ, রাজস্ব ও লাভের কোনো সমস্যা নেই। 2. বিস্তারিত বিজনেস ক্যাটাগরি দেখলে: 1) লাইসেন্সিং রাজস্ব অপেক্ষা অনেক বেশি—8.19 বিলিয়ন ডলার, 29% বৃদ্ধি, যা 7.81 বিলিয়ন ডলারের এনালিস্টদের পূর্বানুমানকে পরাজিত করল। কোম্পানি এটির কারণটি পরবর্তী-জেনারেশন চিপ আর্কিটেকচারের শক্তিশালী চাহিদা এবং গভীর ক্লায়েন্ট-ভিত্তিক কৌশলগত সহযোগিতা-এর সঙ্গে যুক্ত করেছে। লাইসেন্সিংয়ের বিপরীতে, Royalty (বণ্টন) রাজস্বটি দুর্বল। Arm-এর Royalty收入 6.71 বিলিয়ন ডলার, 11% বৃদ্ধি, কিন্তু 6.90–6.93 বিলিয়ন ডলারের মার্কেট-এক্সপেক্টেশনকেছাড়িয়েছে। Royalty-এর অপেক্ষা-ছাড়াইয়াওয়াটি generallyইটিরমধ্যমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধমধមധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധമധમධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධමධមධමධமධமධamadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamaadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhamadhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam adhaam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam Adharam 3. Arm-এর B2B-এর Business Model-টি Understanding: লাইসেন্সিং (Licensing) income: One-time or installment-based upfront fee। Clients (Qualcomm, Apple, NVIDIA etc.) 1–10 million+ USD pay for Arm IP design files, usage rights, and technical support। This money is collected immediately and reflects clients’ current commitment to Arm architecture and future product roadmap। After paying this fee, clients can begin designing their own chips based on Arm IP। Royalty income: Recurring fee collected per chip shipped—typically 1–2% of the chip’s average selling price (ASP), or a fixed per-unit fee (higher for premium architectures like Armv9 or CSS)। The timeline from chip design → tape-out → mass production → actual shipment typically takes 2–3 years (sometimes longer)। This revenue is collected over time—Arm earns as long as the chip is being sold। These are two completely separate revenue streams: Licensing = “buying the blueprint / entry ticket”; Royalty = “revenue share based on volume”। A client must pay both to legally produce and sell chips using Arm IP। So the logic is: Large licensing deals → Clients commit to mass-producing Arm-based chips over the next few years → Royalty revenue will surge 2–3 years later। Thus, strong licensing growth indicates major clients are still expanding their investment in the Arm ecosystem। 3) This earnings report reveals a structural shift in business model: Previously, Royalty accounted for ~50–60% of revenue, Licensing ~30–40%। But now, Licensing revenue has surpassed Royalty revenue। What does this shift mean? It means smartphone market weakness is dragging down Royalty income—but over the past quarter, demand for new Arm IP licenses surged dramatically, likely driven by AI CPU demand। This implies that when these new designs eventually ship, Arm’s Royalty revenue will rise significantly। Strong licensing growth confirms major clients are deepening their investment in the Arm ecosystem। 4. Regarding the market’s biggest question: Arm’s in-house AGI CPU Management noted that demand for high-efficiency CPUs in AI data centers continues to grow strongly, effectively offsetting short-term pressure from smartphones। They also disclosed that customer demand for their AGI CPU for FY2027–2028 has already exceeded $2 billion。 Recall: In March, when Arm first announced its AGI CPU, it projected ~$1 billion in revenue for FY2027–2028। Now that target has doubled—clearly a very positive signal। But here’s the catch: The company did NOT raise its overall revenue guidance, citing uncertainty around supply chain capacity to meet demand। So the core issue remains: supply constraints are limiting near-term shipment volumes। In short: AGI CPU demand is extremely strong—but supply limitations mean actual revenue realization may lag behind market expectations। This may explain the post-market drop। Overall, Arm’s earnings show strong downstream demand for IP licensing and robust appetite for AGI CPU—but short-term supply constraints are causing a mismatch between demand and delivery speed। Combined with recent price appreciation and elevated P/E ratios, this naturally triggers market concern। But fundamentally, business growth remains solid۔ So after this correction, it may present a good opportunity۔