📅 WEEKLY MACROECONOMIC AND RISK CALENDAR | NOVEMBER 2–6, 2026
The main themes of the week are the U.S. midterm elections, October's employment report due on Friday, and interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the RBA. The Fed is not meeting this week (its last meeting was held on October 27–28, and the next is scheduled for December 8–9). Since the U.S. switched to winter time on November 1, U.S. economic data will now be released with an 8-hour difference from ET to TRT. In other words, 08:30 ET = 16:30 TRT and 10:00 ET = 18:00 TRT.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2
🇺🇸 18:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)
🌍 Final global Manufacturing PMI readings (October)
🇨🇳 Meeting of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress begins (continues through November 6)
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3
🇦🇺 06:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement
🇹🇷 10:00 – TurkStat October inflation data
🇨🇭 Switzerland CPI (October)
🇺🇸 18:00 – JOLTS Job Openings (September)
🇺🇸 U.S. Midterm Elections: All 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, and 36 governorships are up for election. Results will begin to become clearer overnight, approaching the morning of November 4 in Turkey time.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4
🇪🇺 13:00 – Eurozone Preliminary CPI (October)
🌍 Final Services and Composite PMI readings (October)
🇺🇸 16:15 – ADP Private Employment (October)
🇺🇸 16:30 – Trade Balance (September)
🇺🇸 16:30 – U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
🇺🇸 18:00 – ISM Services PMI (October)
🇸🇪 Riksbank Interest Rate Decision
🇵🇱 NBP and 🇧🇷 BCB Interest Rate Decisions
🇯🇵 BoJ September Meeting Minutes
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5
🇬🇧 15:00 – Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report
🇳🇴 12:00 – Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
🇨🇿 CNB and 🇲🇽 Banxico Interest Rate Decisions
🇺🇸 16:30 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
🇨🇦 Canadian Federal Budget
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6
🇺🇸 16:30 – Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings (October)
🇨🇦 16:30 – Canadian Employment Report (October)
🇺🇸 18:00 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary (November)
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production (September)
🇪🇺 Eurozone Retail Sales (September)
IMPACT ON THE CRYPTO MARKET AND KEY WEEKLY RISK FACTORS
The biggest uncertainty of the week is the election outcome. Which party gains control of Congress will directly influence expectations for taxation, spending, regulation, and crypto legislation. Since results are expected to become clearer late at night in Turkey time, the risk of sudden price movements and gaps during the Asian session is elevated. A prolonged vote count or close results could extend uncertainty over several days.
Friday's NFP report will be the key data release reshaping interest rate expectations ahead of the Fed's December meeting. Weaker-than-expected employment figures and a softening labor market could strengthen expectations for rate cuts, potentially supporting BTC and altcoins. A hotter reading, however, could push the dollar and Treasury yields higher, weighing on risk appetite. Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services data could influence these expectations before Friday.
The U.S. Treasury's borrowing announcement, also scheduled for Wednesday, will be closely watched for its implications for long-term Treasury supply and market liquidity. Any surprises in auction sizes or maturity composition could trigger volatility in yields.
On the global central bank front, the RBA announces its decision on Tuesday, the Riksbank on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday. Unexpectedly hawkish decisions could tighten global liquidity conditions and generate short-term selling pressure across risk assets. At the BoE, the voting distribution and the tone of forward guidance will shape market pricing. Wednesday's preliminary Eurozone inflation reading will also serve as a reference point for ECB expectations.
In Türkiye, Tuesday's inflation report will be an important factor for the CBRT's interest rate trajectory and Turkish lira-denominated assets. Local crypto trading volumes and the USDT/TRY exchange rate could become more active following the data release.
From a technical perspective, the week's highest-risk windows are: the election results process from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the concentration of U.S. data releases between 16:15 and 18:00 on Wednesday, and Friday's 16:30 NFP release. Liquidity may thin during these periods, making it particularly important to review stop-loss levels and position sizes in leveraged trades.
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