The new week begins with BTC holding at $63,150. Whale buying is offsetting ETF outflows. The FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be critical for determining market direction.

Michael Burry just shorted $MU at $1,052, and his reasoning is the whole debate in one trade. His case is history. Micron has had 34 drawdowns of more than 30% in 42 years. He calls it "cyclical like no other," says the HBM excitement is just another product in a long line, and points out the stock is stretched further above its 200-day moving average than at any point since 1984. He's betting the cycle always wins. It always has. The other side is what's new. 16 take or pay contracts now lock in $100B of minimum revenue, with $22B in customer deposits and commitments. None of that existed in the last 34 drawdowns. The bull case is that this time the contracts break the pattern. So it's not really Burry versus Micron. It's 42 years of cycles versus a contract structure that's never been tested in one. Betting with Burry or against him?

$BTC has now completed another important step in the recovery. After successfully reclaiming both the 60K level and the lower boundary of the prior range around 61K, bulls have now reclaimed the midpoint of the range around 62.5K and successfully flipped it into support. Price briefly traded back below the midpoint before buyers stepped in once again and successfully defended the level on the 4H timeframe. As a result, focus now shifts toward the upper boundary of the range around 64K. A successful reclaim of 64K would significantly strengthen the current recovery and increase the probability of another challenge of the 65K region. Failure to maintain acceptance above the midpoint would shift attention back toward the lower half of the range, with 61K becoming the first important level to watch. For now, the upper boundary around 64K has become the key level to watch for the next structural confirmation.

We're still in an extremely over-leveraged market. Just look how quickly the $BTC heatmap reloads with short liquidity after a single red candle. One flush is all it takes. That said, there's now a significant short liquidation cluster building around $64K. Interestingly, that's also where yesterday's relief rally topped out. If BTC can reclaim that region, I'd expect those shorts to become fuel for a relatively aggressive squeeze higher. For now, $64K remains the level I'd be watching.

#BTC And in those Bear Market years, the August downside extended into September downside as well September would produce additional -19% downside in 2014, -5% in 2018 and -3% in 2022 It's not just about August downside It's also about September downside continuation $BTC #Bitcoin

#BTC Bitcoin is repeating Summer 2022 history In June 2022, Bitcoin broke down from the 50-Month EMA In July 2022, Bitcoin turned the EMA into new resistance And in August 2022, Bitcoin finally dropped to the same price where June ended and July began There's a good chance the Summer 2022 playbook will repeat during this Summer 2026 $BTC #Bitcoin