Today we’ll see what wins: Fed or AI? (2nd) Hot PCE print vs MU blowout earnings

🇮🇷 The plan to get thousands of stranded sailors out of the Strait of Hormuz got frozen after a cargo ship was hit near Oman. The IMO had spent days working out a safe corridor along the Omani coast for the hundreds of ships stuck in the Gulf since February. Then the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely got struck 7.5 nautical miles off Dahit, and the whole thing was paused until further notice. The hit came hours after Tehran told ships to stay off any route it hadn't signed off on. Over 100 days stuck in the Gulf, and the way out lasted no more than a few days. Source: FT, Reuters / Writer: Julie

🚨 THE FED JUST GOT BACKED INTO A CORNER. Today’s economic data may have completely changed the outlook for interest rates. Inflation is moving in the wrong direction. • PCE inflation jumped to 4.1%, its highest level in more than 3 years. • Core PCE climbed to 3.4%, the highest in over 2.5 years. At the same time, the economy is refusing to slow down. The final estimate for Q1 U.S. GDP came in at 2.1%, beating expectations, while the labor market continues to show resilience. This creates a major problem for the Federal Reserve. The Fed typically cuts interest rates when the economy weakens. But with growth holding up and inflation accelerating again, there’s little justification for easing monetary policy. Markets are now pushing back expectations for rate cuts, while the probability of another rate hike has risen sharply.

🚨 American households paid an EXTRA $131.6 BILLION for gasoline over the past year. Not “inflation.” A supply shock created the perfect conditions for refiners to lock in record margins, while you were just trying to fill your tank. The system didn’t break. It worked exactly as designed. Here’s exactly how it happened… and what should actually be done about it. Whitepaper link below 👇

🚨 THE WINNER TAKES IT ALL 🚨 The Dollar is now the world's best performing major currency in 2026. The U.S. dollar is up 3% in 2026 after falling more than 10% in the first half of 2025. 2026 was worst start to a year since the early 1970s. Why Dollar winning? AI driven U.S. economic strength. Global investors continue pouring money into U.S. assets. Markets now expect at least one more Fed rate hike Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance on inflation The result: 🇯🇵 Yen sits near 40 years low against the dollar. 🇪🇺 Euro remains under pressure. The "American exceptionalism" trade is back.

You watch the rate of change of CPI, aka Inflation. I watch the rate of change of Inflation, aka the rate of change of the rate of change of CPI. We are not the same.

When oil was first discovered in Pennsylvania, people were mostly interested in the kerosene. The by-products were discarded. History is full of examples where the "waste" turned out to be more valuable than the original. Are we making a similar mistake with stranded energy?

The UN has halted ship escorts through the Strait of Hormuz following an attack, underscoring extreme fragility in the world's most vital energy chokepoint. This development is likely to fuel risk-off sentiment, with crude oil and shipping assets particularly sensitive. Sustained disruption fears could also offer near-term support to safe havens. How might this impact global energy prices and supply chains in the coming weeks? #Hormuz #Oil #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #Hormuz #Oil #Risk

Fresh US inflation data came in softer, significantly easing market expectations for another aggressive Fed rate hike. This shift has traders reassessing the central bank's path, putting the greenback on the back foot and giving risk assets some breathing room. Will this softer inflation tone hold, or is it just a temporary pause? #Dollar #USD #Inflation #Fed #MarketUpdate #Dollar #Inflation #Fed