🏛️ #CLARITYAct Odds Fall To 60% Research firm #GalaxyDigital has lowered its odds of the #CLARITYAct passing this year from 75% to 60%, citing the Senate's increasingly tight legislative calendar. Meanwhile, prediction markets now give only a 54% chance that President Trump will sign the bill into law in 2026, as unresolved issues and the approaching midterm elections continue to narrow the window for action. Despite the challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. 🔗 Full story in comments 👇

Galaxy's @intangiblecoins says he is lowering his odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%. He says the problem is not the bill, which cleared committee 15-9 with bipartisan support. It is the Senate calendar. Thorn argues the bill must pass both chambers before August recess at the end of July. After that, midterm election dynamics make fall passage unlikely. The Senate lost a week to the anti-weaponization fund and FISA reauthorization failed last night, consuming next week's floor time. Ethics provisions remain unresolved and he expects two Republican no votes from Hawley and Paul, meaning the bill needs at least 9 Democrats on the floor. Without a credible floor commitment from leadership in the next two to three weeks, Thorn says the path narrows to a post-recess effort in September, which he is cautious about.

BREAKING: Senator Lummis just called out Jamie Dimon directly. "He is absolutely wrong on the CLARITY Act." "He either hasn't read the bill. Or he wants to mislead people." The woman who wrote the bill. Telling America's most powerful banker he doesn't understand it. Or worse. That he does. The banks aren't fighting the CLARITY Act because it's bad policy. They're fighting it because it's good for crypto. And bad for their deposit base. The CLARITY Act is on the Senate Legislative Calendar. Five of nine steps to becoming law. Done. Jamie Dimon can fight all he wants. The bill is moving anyway.

Six GOP Senators push Fed, FDIC, OCC to revise bank capital rules for digital assets. They warn Basel's 1,250% crypto risk weighting could block bank holdings of Bitcoin & others. While some crypto rules eased, direct Bitcoin capital treatment is still an open issue.

Bitcoin will likely rally a little in summer. The narrative behind the rally is going to be the CLARITY Act passing.

The momentum for $crypto regulation is growing 🙌🏻💢 Congressman French Hill on the #CLARITYAct: "We need this bill. We need market structure." He also believes banks will become "extremely competitive" in the digital asset industry. Regulatory clarity is no longer a question of if—it's a question of when 💪🏼

i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next week will be dominated by FISA (after already losing a week on anti-weaponization fund) add to the calendar problem the fact that we didn’t get any headlines this week about paths forward on outstanding issues like ethics or illicit finance i’m still optimistic but the timing matters a lot now and odds could shift wildly as the calendar progresses

The only thing that can save crypto at this point is the Clarity Act

🚨 U.S. Representative French Hill spoke about the Clarity Act: “We need this law. A clear regulatory framework is essential for the crypto market. I also believe banks will be highly competitive in this sector.” 👀 We need this law too :)