💸 TODAY’S TRAP | Just one number was enough this afternoon for the market to change its view on the Fed. 172,000 jobs created in the US in May—twice the consensus—while the energy shock reignites inflation. Investors are now betting on a Fed that will raise rates (ATS). The US 10-year yield jumped from 4.47% to 4.53% in just minutes. Meanwhile, this same week, the ECB is preparing for its first rate hike in a year on Wednesday. The scenario of “rates will fall, just wait a bit” has collapsed on both sides in seven days. If your strategy relied on this scenario playing out to succeed, the problem isn’t the market—it’s that your plan was based on a forecast. A solid strategy doesn’t need to predict interest rates. It simply requires you to keep applying it even when the forecast fails. Source: BLS, ATS

Trump says “stocks should go up, not down” after today’s jobs report and that “Growth does not mean inflation.”

Canada just printed +88K jobs in May. Economists expected 10,000 but the headline needs context. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 6.9% while participation held steady, so the improvement came from hiring rather than people dropping out of the labour force. Employment had fallen 112,000 in the first four months of 2026. May was the first significant gain since November. This release gave back most of what the year had taken. The composition is where it gets interesting: - Full-time work surged 154,000, nearly reversing the full-time losses from January through April. - Part-time fell 66,000. - Private sector did the real work at +56,000. Public sector added 20,000. Self employed was flat. Now let's look at wages. Average hourly wages for permanent employees grew 3.2% YoY. The prior month was 4.8%. The tariff effects are visible if you look deeper. The direct hit is in manufacturing, still down 44,000 since the tariffs landed in early 2025 even after a +15,000 bounce in May. StatCan links the weakness to tariff driven uncertainty. Steel, aluminum and autos are the main targets. Wholesale and retail trade is the second round story. It lost 35,000 jobs in May and has been trending lower since October. Those consumer facing sectors are absorbing the demand hit as the tariffs work through to prices. Next Wednesday is the Bank of Canada's rate decision. This is the last major data release before it. The mix of strong headline jobs and softening wages gives the Bank of Canada room to either cut or hold next week. How’s the job market feeling in your area right now?

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what was expected. On paper, that's a hot number. I'd look closer though. Nearly a third of it was government hiring, and once you strip that out the private sector added just 120,000, down from the month before. Almost all of that was restaurants, hotels, and hospitals. So outside health care and leisure, private hiring was close to nothing with finance actually cutting jobs. The revisions were the real positive. The prior two months got marked up by 93,000, after more than a year of being revised the other way. But that doesn't change the shape of it. The job market isn't weak, but it is narrow. And if you've already lost your job it's getting harder, not easier. The number of people out of work for half a year or more is up sharply over the past year. So the hiring is real, but it just isn't reaching most of the economy. A jobs boom that a lot of people can't actually find, and plenty of them have felt that for a while now, whatever the headline says. Where you are, does this match what you're seeing?

How U.S. jobs data negatively affect the IHSG: if the Fed hikes rates, BI has to hike more.

Bitcoin slipped below 60,000 USD after a stronger than expected US jobs report - highlights that a surprisingly strong May US jobs report significantly increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which strengthened the dollar and pressured risk assets - that future price stability will depend heavily on upcoming inflation data and the direction of fund flows

The U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected, reducing the likelihood interest rate cuts. As a result, the market sold off. Nevertheless, market structure remains bullish while price holds above prior resistance, which is now acting as support. The first major test is the 0.786 Fibonacci level.

⚠️The average American worker is increasingly squeezed by inflation: Real disposable income fell -1.1% YoY in April, the largest decline since October 2022, and dropped -5.6% on an annualized MoM basis, the most since May 2025. Furthermore, real personal income excluding government transfer payments fell -0.4% MoM, the 4th monthly decline in 5 months, and has dropped -1.8% annualized over the last 6 months, the largest such decline since 2022. This metric captures after-tax income from labor and capital while excluding government support such as Social Security and unemployment benefits. Historically, this level of weakness has rarely occurred outside of a recession. Inflation is increasingly eroding the purchasing power of most Americans.