This is very interesting SpaceX is not even publicly listed and 21 ETPs already in the pipeline $SPCX

Last night, Jeff Bezos watched his rocket explode on the launch pad. Blue Origin's New Glenn - destroyed in seconds. Homes shook 20 miles away. The sky turned orange. Here's what nobody is saying: - Blue Origin has only ONE launch pad. It's now destroyed. - Amazon's satellite internet launch - cancelled - No timeline for return to flight - SpaceX's Starship V3 launched successfully just 6 days ago Bezos responded: "Very rough day. We'll rebuild." Elon responded: "Most unfortunate. Rockets are hard." 3 words. No gloating. Because Elon knows exactly what this feels like. SpaceX's Falcon 9 exploded on this same Cape Canaveral in 2016. It took 3.5 months to return to flight. Today SpaceX launches more rockets than any country on Earth. The difference between winning and losing in space? You keep going after the explosion. Will Blue Origin? #TheShift #WorldChangingThings

US Space Force just handed SpaceX a $4.16B contract to build a new satellite network focused on tracking airborne targets. Defense + space budgets are flowing to Elon at scale. Hard to stay bearish on this trend. 🚀

🚨 SpaceX could become the largest insider cash-out in market history!!! SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12 with a market capitalization of $1.75–2 trillion. This would immediately surpass Microsoft and make it the second-largest company in the U.S. market, behind only Apple and NVIDIA. However, the company reported a loss of $4.28 billion in just the first quarter of 2026, with cumulative losses since inception reaching $41.3 billion. The real story lies in what happens after the IPO. Currently, insiders own 95% of all shares. Public float is only 5%. And insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth that they cannot currently sell. Most IPOs impose a 180-day lock-up on insiders. SpaceX does not. Just 60 days after going public, 20% of eligible insider shares will become eligible for sale. If the stock price rises 30% above the IPO price, an additional 10% will be unlocked. Then, between days 70 and 135, five separate 7% unlock events will occur. By November 2026, as much as 93% of early-released insider shares could already be eligible for sale. This is not just an IPO. It could be one of the largest liquidity events Wall Street has ever seen.

SpaceX is valued at $1.5 trillion—using PE or PS ratios, it’s clearly not cheap. But when you consider it will likely reach $10 trillion in 10 years, it doesn’t seem so bad. The biggest regret is not investing when it was only $400 billion.

SpaceX lowers its IPO valuation target by 10% to $1.8 trillion. This is not actually a negative. More accurately, the market’s previous expectation of a valuation above $2 trillion has been brought down to approximately $1.8 trillion. While this figure appears lower, it remains a historic, colossal valuation within the global capital markets. Because Solana:PreANxuXjsy2pvisWWMNB6YaJNzr7681wJJr2rHsfTh tells an extraordinarily ambitious story—rocket launches, Starlink, low-earth-orbit satellite internet, defense contracts, deep-space exploration, and even the potential future role as part of the global AI and financial infrastructure. Yet, capital markets ultimately price cash flows, growth rates, risk, and liquidity. A valuation above $2 trillion was overly inflated, leaving virtually no margin for error after listing. At $1.8 trillion, there’s more room for institutional investors to anticipate upside. This isn’t SpaceX losing its vision—it’s beginning to align with the realities of public market valuation logic. Private markets can pay for dreams; public markets must account for exits, volatility, and valuation anchors. What matters isn’t just how low the valuation went, but that if SpaceX is now accepting a more realistic price, it signals that the global risk asset valuation game is shifting from narrative premiums back to growth delivery.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Space Force awards SpaceX $4.16 billion contract to build satellite network for tracking airborne targets.

**It will likely hurt most post-IPO investors (especially those buying at or shortly after listing and holding through the first 3–12 months), due to the combination of sky-high valuation, tiny float, aggressive insider selling windows, and ongoing heavy losses.** ### Why it hurts (the bear case is strong here) - **Extreme valuation on weak current fundamentals**: Targeting $1.75–2T (recent reports suggest settling around $1.8T) with ~$18.7B 2025 revenue (mostly Starlink) and massive losses ($4.3B net loss in Q1 2026 alone, ~$5B for 2025, $41B+ accumulated). That’s ~94x sales while burning cash on AI capex ($7.7B in Q1 2026) and Starship. Starlink is profitable and growing fast, but the AI/xAI drag and overall red ink make this one of the richest multiples ever for a non-profitable company. - **Classic insider cash-out structure with early liquidity**: 95% insider/early-holder ownership pre-IPO means a ~5% public float initially (very tight). The staged unlocks are unusually front-loaded vs. the standard 180-day lockup: 20% eligible after just 60 days, performance-based extra at +30%, then multiple 7% tranches through day 135. By November 2026, ~93% of early insider shares could be sellable. Insiders have been locked up for years with trillions in paper gains—Musk (42% equity, 85% voting) has longer restrictions, but many others don’t. This creates massive potential supply overhang exactly when hype peaks. - **Empirical evidence on lockups and IPOs**: Academic studies consistently show negative abnormal returns and volume spikes around lockup expirations (especially for VC-backed/high-insider-ownership names), as selling pressure hits. Short/early unlocks amplify this. IPOs as a group underperform the market long-term, with worse results in the 6 months after the typical lockup window opens. Small-float + hype setups often pop on day 1, then fade as reality (and selling) sets in. - **Sentiment and mechanics**: The X thread and replies overwhelmingly call it “exit liquidity,” “dumping on retail,” and a “liquidity trap.” Even bulls in replies often say “buy the crash later” or “flip quick.” 🟢 Where it could benefit (the bull case) - Massive narrative + execution upside: Starlink’s scale, Starship progress, AI infrastructure pivot, and $28T+ TAM story (multiplanetary + orbital economy) are real differentiators. If SpaceX hits milestones (e.g., Starlink profitability exploding, profitable AI/cloud deals, reusable Starship dominance), the stock could rerate higher over years—like Tesla did post its own loss-making IPO despite similar skepticism. - Initial pop + retail access: 30% of the float reportedly allocated to retail; IPO pops are common. Long-term believers buying any post-hype dip could do well if Musk delivers (he has a track record of over-delivering on vision). - Some studies note that firms where insiders sell post-lockup can actually outperform longer-term (signaling confidence or just clearing overhang). ✅ Bottom line for different investor types - **Flippers / very short-term**: Possible quick win on listing pop (June 12 expected pricing/trading under SPCX), but risky. - **Medium-term holders (buy IPO or soon after, hold 6–18 months)**: High risk of pain from unlocks + any growth slowdown → most likely **hurt**. - **True long-term believers (5+ years, buy on weakness)**: Could benefit handsomely if you have high conviction in the vision and stomach volatility. The company is executing in hard tech where few compete. This setup prioritizes liquidity for long-illiquid insiders at peak hype while public buyers absorb the execution and multiple risk. The structure screams caution for anyone not already deeply bullish on Musk’s full stack. If you’re considering it, wait for post-listing volatility and some unlocks to clear—better entry than chasing the opening frenzy. Not financial advice, DYOR

Hyperliquid’s SpaceX pre-IPO contract crashed 45% in just 30 minutes, wiping out $1.51M. 405 traders were liquidated, with the median margin sitting at only $31. The contract recorded just $4.87M in daily volume — a single large sell order completely drained liquidity. This isn’t real SpaceX stock. It’s a synthetic perpetual contract: • No shares • No ownership • Just leveraged speculation ahead of the expected June IPO With no public price benchmark and extremely thin liquidity, retail traders got destroyed chasing pre-IPO hype. Thin market + leverage = disaster. What's your take on SpaceX, and do you have confidence in it? #Hyperliquid #SpaceX #Crypto