We believe that as long as the ceasefire remains in place, despite the expected volatility, the market can still manage to absorb the current higher inflation and a hawkish Fed. Let’s hope conditions calm down over the weekend.
Fed delays rate cuts
June 2026, Fed economists expect no rate cuts in 2026, with core PCE at 3.3% and funds rate at 3.8%. Inflation remains above target.
INFLATION ISN'T JUST A HEADLINE. IT MOVES MARKETS. Yesterday's Core PCE report showed inflation is still running hotter than investors would like. Why does that matter? When inflation stays elevated, the Federal Reserve has less reason to lower interest rates. That keeps financial conditions tight and reduces the amount of liquidity flowing into risk assets like crypto. Less liquidity often means slower rallies, weaker momentum, and more pressure on speculative markets. This is why we don't just follow the news - We focus on how the news changes market conditions, and then adjust our strategy accordingly. Understanding the "why" behind the move is where the real edge comes from. #Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto
Why are hikes back on the table when inflation is clearly transitory, war and energy driven? The hike was never about that. What changed is the Fed regime. Warsh tore up the dot plots and guidance, and made it clear price stability is the goal. That uncertainty that the fed will hike just to really kill inflation carries a risk premium. A hawkish front end then drags the long end down. Exactly what Trump put Warsh in for.
I thought I’d write this down before investing. I’ll try to prepare the video next week. I’m unsure whether to wait for the U.S. inflation data. On the other hand, all data except interest rates have already been released during this shakeout phase. All I can say is: if they won’t reset the market, the birth is near.
A 0.5% move in $SPY is not a macro thesis—most daily market stories are narrative fitted after price moves. 📊 Medium confidence: research cites ~92% of financial news as “boilerplate” vs true unexpected information. The key is not the headline; it’s the surprise vs consensus, positioning, and implied pricing. Same data can be framed both ways: • Strong jobs = growth bullish • Strong jobs = “higher for longer” bearish That’s narrative fallacy, not causal analysis. For PMs/analysts: require every headline-driven trade to pass a transmission test: 1) What cash flows changed? 2) What discount rate/risk premium changed? 3) Was it already priced? 4) Do rates, credit, FX, vol, options, and flows confirm? Watch narrative velocity in crowded sectors—AI, semis, crypto, EVs, banks, biotech. Even false narratives can move prices via retail flows, systematic sentiment models, stop-losses, and liquidity gaps. Actionable: fade exaggerated “tumble/surge” coverage when cross-asset confirmation is absent; respect it when positioning is crowded and price fails to recover despite “benign” fundamentals. #Markets #RiskManagement #BehavioralFinance #PortfolioManagement #FinTwit
What do you think 🤔 will the rate go up or down in 2026? JUST IN: Fed member says he has one "rate hike" penciled in for 2026 60% chance it happens
I thought Warsh didn’t want the Fed talking? Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says he expects a rate hike this year: CNBC
June Consumer Sentiment: 49.5 vs est. 49.0 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations moved lower to 3.3%