

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633, commonly called the CLARITY Act) has not passed the Senate and is not law. It cleared the House 294–134 in July 2025 and the Senate Banking Committee 15–9 in May 2026. A merged Senate text was released in late July 2026. The immediate next step is a cloture vote on the motion to proceed, scheduled for Tuesday, September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET—the day after the Senate returns from recess. This is a 60-vote procedural hurdle to even begin formal debate on the bill; it is not a vote on final passage. Republicans hold 53 seats, so it needs roughly 7 Democratic or independent votes (assuming no Republican defections). As of early September 2026, multiple Senate offices and reporting indicated the bill was “hanging by a thread,” with expectations that it would fall short of 60 votes. Prediction-market odds for 2026 passage had dropped into the mid-teens. Key unresolved issues include the ethics provision (restrictions on federal officials issuing or sponsoring tokens, DOJ-only enforcement, and a 2029 sunset), DeFi/developer liability protections, and stablecoin yield/rewards.32 If cloture fails on the 15th, the bill is widely viewed as dead for the rest of the 119th Congress. The remaining 2026 calendar is compressed by midterm campaigning, appropriations, and other must-pass items; Q4 attachment to year-end legislation is theoretically possible but considered a long shot. Failure this year would likely push comprehensive market-structure legislation to 2027 or later. In the meantime, a joint SEC-CFTC interpretive release from March 2026 continues to provide provisional classification guidance for certain assets.

ok. but the market players this year are very different from players in past mid term Aug-sep years. For example was IBIT much of a thing in the last Aug-Sep midterm year? Did MSTR even hold 50% of the BTC they hold today? Expecting a repeat this time is probably not smart. Trade the tape not your out of context expectations.

Hope you are right about passage soon but Grok says caution: From Gtok: … still holding odds of passage in July at well under 1%—realistically close to 0% at this point. https://t.co/mhMk7ClPWu As of today (July 20, 2026), there’s no cloture motion filed, no confirmed floor date, and no updated/merged bill text released that resolves the core sticking points. The Senate has only ~14 working days left before the August 7 recess (per trackers like Crypto in America/Eleanor Terrett), and the bill remains on the Legislative Calendar (No. 423) without scheduled action.




