My base case is we are about to enter economic weakness in jobs and disinflation where bonds utilities and monetary hedges like gold and Bitcoin rip. Then deflationary heavily driven by productivity gains from AI. It will be AI vs the S&P - not the same trade.

I have been without alcohol since August 5 2025. Here is what I have learned: - I never needed it - drinking is antisocial - spiritual growth is easier without it - physical fitness is easier to achieve without it - some friends are more drinking buddies than real friends - better sleep without it Basically no downside. Highly recommend it.

The concern for Canada beyond the fallout from a trade war is the fact it spent the last ten years de-industrializing. So to now re-industrialize it must do it quickly otherwise costs rise fast and unemployment explodes. If I were Carney I would start from the sectors where we have competitive advantage, regardless of whether his base will like it. He is stuck with the choice of supporting his base or doing the right thing. Oil, gas and mining should explode to help dig us out of this. I am a huge fan of environmental protections but some of the special interest groups block development too much and have far too big a voice. Economic war should mean wartime measures of 'ram it through sunshine'. Canada must act swiftly - something it has not done in decades.

The irony of AI is that the tech darlings of last cycle are bringing it in, unlike other cycles that were dominated by new entrants. Will that last though? My thoughts are this cycle will create a decentralization of tech. Segmentation not one stop.

Raise your hand if you watch the reaction to the fed more than listen to their nonsense.

Ai is like any tech change: overestimated change in the short term and underestimated in the long term.

Bitcoin is going to break out. Way too strong a bid. I bought more on the pullback this past week. Bitcoin and gold. NFA. Regime change on money and inevitable portfolio allocation increase as they need a diversified monetary hedge. Small asset = high price volatility from small allocation changes for portfolio managers. Strong bull case unfolding.

The move in Bitcoin is reflecting a change in market environment. Fiscal regime monetary debasement acceleration. But as a very small asset just minor allocation changes by large players can drive price fast.

The signal of yields down is a real catalyst. Liquidity. Commodities and hard money. This is what I believed was going to happen but every boomer analyst says yields up. Bissent is not stupid. He understands what 8 trillion rolling soon at high yields does. He has the tool kit.

Bissent just launched the final phase of this regime. Big structural changes are coming. Got gold? Got Bitcoin? You should!